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Entries in volatility (9)

Wednesday
Apr112012

We Didn't Start the Fire



What a great song.

There are probably more college history and sociology courses centered around the tumultuous tale of the 20th century that is told in that song than any other musical composition ever, with the possible exception of American Pie.

For my money though, the Buddy Holly and Elvis Presley stand-off is a metaphor for East versus West tension and nuclear stockpiles build-up.

Or maybe it's just about some coming of age kind of thing, I don't know, but naming a movie series after the song has cheapened us all. Why didn't they just call it "Twinkies?" That would have made so much more sense.

As I re-discover the lyrics, I realize that I've actually used many of the subjects in passing, through various blog entries, as everything in the past has a degree of connection to the present, if you have a syphilitic riddled mind.

Their have been cover versions, remakes and satirical versions of the classical song and its driving musical beat. For those that lived through much of the historical period covered it's an incredibly moving song making you want even more and sometimes wondering how anyone ever survived the cumulative "us."

It was done despite "us."

We Didn't Start the FireBut, with all due respect to Billy Joel (which is never a respectful way to begin a sentence), those that marched with Chou En-Lai and perhaps banged their shoes with Kruschev. the world's political and cultural events of the 20th century have nothing on even a single week in the financial markets.

In hindight, as quickly as the seminal events of the 20th century may have unfolded, they were at a snail's pace compared to the events and non-events that shake, rattle and roll the markets.

In that small section of the universe change comes about in quantum leaps forward and backward.

In a somewhat contradictory stance, despite the reliance on charts and the inferences drawn based upon past history, in the world of financial news, past history is meaningless. Further, in the compressed time frame of the markets, ancient past history is defined simply by the release of any new piece of information or data. Good news is quickly forgotten, as is great news. Bad news? As if it never existed if something else exists.

Market Alzheimer's Disease? Perhaps.

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Mar282012

Winsome Wednesdays



I spent a good part of the day in a medical facilty and its waiting room today. and I'm not quite certain how to describe the fare that was playing on the communal, but grossly undersized overhead television.

Obviously I'm spoiled by both content and context.

Winsome WednesdaysIt certainly wasn't what I was used to watching during the day, as local news production values leave much to be desired.

Unless I'm mistaken or still in some drug induced recovery mode, I think that one of the correspondents adorned in a plaid blazer was named Herb Grunberg and he was accompanied by Brian Mulligan and Candy Drury.

Other than perhaps being a bit more hirsute and much less intelligible, I guess I could learn to like them, if I was destined to spend the rest of my life in a Bizarro universe.

But my stay here was to be a short one. Sugar Momma made me promise, though, not to divulge why I was here, but I am at liberty to disclose that my efforts to perfect an Erectile Dysfunction drug that allowed you to wait 8 hours before seeking urgent medical attention went awry.

Seems that the calculation should take into account the amount of time that it takes to get to the facility.

But despite the utter boredom of the day, it was a welcome change from what is typically "Winsome Wednesday" which for me represents the low point of the week in terms of trading activity and meaningfully relevant news stories.

Lest you think that I don't know the meaning of the word "winsome," let its use just be refelctive of the fact that I was too lazy and unimaginative today to come up with some other word for alliterative purposes.

Yet, when looking for a change of pace, maybe boring Wednesdays are my definition of "winsome."

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Mar272012

Wild, Wild West



Wild, Wild WestI'm known neither for my sense of timing nor my sense of logic.

I still believe Sugar Momma's past contentions that my sperm must have been very slow swimming and her other assertion regarding her unusually short gestational period.

In the old "phylogeny recapitulates ontogeny" discussion, she is a prime example of our evolutionary link to the hamster.

Maybe it's "ontogeny recapitulates phylogent," but either way, the connection is clear. The scattered and partially digested carcasses of some of our offspring offer further testament.

My poor timing extends to most everything in life.

People always look back at their lives and question why they did or didn't do certain things at certain times of journey. Whether in romance or finance, those feelings are near universal and will typically lead you down a bad path if you don't resist the game and linger too long in its play.

The CNBC question of the day was "What would you have done differently if you could go back to 1998?"

Presumably they wanted some answer related to finance and they couldn't have been disappointed, as the predictable responses surrounding Apple and shorting the tech boom stocks were common responses.

The funny thing is that I didn't even conside rinvesting decisions when it came to that question. I'm so much more of a romantic than one who is so tightly focused on money.

If I could have gone back in time I would have taped all episodes of "Men Behaving Badly."

But I've moved on in life.

Click to read more ...

Saturday
Mar242012

Weekend Update 



Weekend Update March 24, 2012It's really amazing that this past week marked the single worst one of 2012.

With now nearly 25% of the year having passed, we can look back and say that a 0.5% drop is the largest we have had. Hard to believe, given where we had come from.

Reminds me of the comment a neighbor made when we bought our new long haired miniature dachshund home for the first time.

"I have poops that are bigger than that thing."

That's what I imagine 2011 saying to 2012.

You call that volatility? I'll show you volatility.

The two big stories of the week were undoubtedly the debacles surrounding the IPO of the BATS Exchange and plunge in Credit Suisse's leveraged VIX product, TVIX.

In the case of the TVIX Exchange Traded Note, there is nothing but misunderstanding regarding pricing and the risk. The details regarding the general misperceptions around TVIX is really well adressed by Kid Dynamite, who is part of the StockTwits family of bloggers, that includes The Reformed Broker and James Altucher.

Not a bad bunch, despite the fact that Phil Pearlman, one of the founders of Stock Twits hasn't added me as a blogger.

Tell Phil.

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Mar222012

Hello Volatility my Old Friend



I don't know why, but so many things in life seem to be able to be expressed in someone else's song.

For lots of people, the feeling is that the song is speaking directly to them and captures exactly what they've felt.

For me, if that were the case, I'd be a die hard fan of instrumentals.

As much as I love Bruce Spriingsteen, there's no doubt that he's not singing to me or about anything that I know or can identify with. I'm just a big fan of unbridled sweat stains.

"I see you walking down the street, pushing that baby carriage at your feet'" is a line that I can play back in my head for hours at a time, yet it means nothing to me.

"My father said right before he died that true true love was just a lie."

Again. Nothing.

Hello Volatility my Old FriendSimon and Garfunkel come as close as anyone that I could identify with other than the fact that I can't sing and I never had any friends to disharmonize with on the streets of the city.

Garfunkel on the other hand did have a couple of solo hits that seemed to speak to me, but more than likely it was the hair that I idenitfied with.

Now that he's old and has male pattern baldness, I won't look nor listen in his direction.

For me, volatility is far from the "darkness" that the original duo known as "Tom and Jerry" sang about, except that I do think of it as my friend.

Friendship is a strange thing, because even arch nemeses somehow perversely become friends, if only because of the years upon years of battling with one another, and the mutual understanding and respect that ensues. At least that's the image that's painted in "The Fugitive," and "The Pink Panther."

Personally, I think that years of battling would only deepen the anger and hatred.

The recent friend, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and Starbucks just had a falling out and then just as quickly had a reconciliation, just yesterday.

Friendship is great and quantifiable, as Green Mountain went up about 13% after Starbucks announced yet another initiative with their insipid coffee making friends.

But then, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz was on air after the annual meeting and despite saying nothing but good and warm things about his friends in Vermont, discounted it all as he quickly changed his tone and cadence with the perfect use of the word "however," as he transitioned to a more bubbly discussion of Starbuck's upcoming venture into coffee hardware.

Whatever happened to Simon and Garfunkel, anyway?

Click to read more ...

Friday
Mar162012

Weekend Update



If I do say so myself, the nice thing about my blog is that you really don't have to read it very often, because I'm constantly repeating myself. Imagine being married to me. Suddenly the unlimited supply of amusing stories and anecdotes reaches a limit, as long as your memory or hearing is intact

Best of all, this still being a free society, you don't have to read it at all, as long as you continue to pay the monthly subscription fee to have it delivered to your Kindle.

Imagine, just $0.99 a month to have it electronically delivered to your e-Book reader.

I think Amazon should adopt the old Telephone directory strategy for having an unlisted number and charge $2.50 a month to not get the blog delivered to your Kindle.

But if you have been reading on a regular basis you'd know that I've been bemoaning the fact that so far in 2012, I've been trailing the S&P 500.

Ever since I've been doing this dogmatic approach to covered call writing I'm not accustomed to seeing myself behind the eight ball.

TIME MagazineThe real kiss of death probably came when Barrons Magazine called the covered call strategy the only winning one for 2011.

It's exactly the same as when TIME magazine puts something hot on the cover.

It fades and fizzles.

Or like when Sugar Momma finally got herself an iPod Mini.

The day that she gives up her Kindle and exchanges it for an iPad is the day I start shorting Apple shares with every last bit of my soul and portfolio.

But finally, this week was back to normal, though not in trading activity. I still made relatively few trades this week. Having made such few trades, some dumb ones, in hindsight, really stand out.

Like grabbing a few pennies by selling calls on all of my Research in Motion holdings on Thursday, the day before shares inexplicably go up 7%.

I say inexplicably, because the purported reason was first given that there was some sort of Samsung alliance rumor, which was then followed by the contention that the fact that RIMM didn't offer a "profit warning" report had to be a very positive sign.

I don't know very much about SEC rules, and by that I mean that I don't know anything, but are they required to give profit warnings?

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Aug162011

Wasted Optimism


 

My Sugar Momma keeps complaining that I tell the same stories over and over again.

My Sugar Momma keeps complaining that I tell the same stories over and over again.

Get the idea?

There are a lot of things that change after more than a quarter a century of marriage. Reflexive laughter at a spouse's stories and jokes is but one of them. The others will be discussed in my adults only webpage section exclusively for annual plan paid subscribers. I don't play blue for non-paying audiences.

So it should come as no surprise that the most difficult thing to do with a blog is to find inspiration and new material day in and day out. That's especially true since I've made a habit of recycling stocks as I do stories. I rarely add a new one, maybe one new stock each month.

Thankfully, my short term memory is shot, so it's always new and fresh, as are the stories and anecdotes. That also explains how I can watch Comedy Central. The only things that seem familiar are the nightly news stories and the market's volatility.

Seen all of those before.

After all, why should I traipse into new territory? It's not like I've been married to everyone for 25+ years. And why stray from the stocks that got you to the party? Do you really think I'm going to watch that new Paul Reiser sit-com? I didn't even watch the one that ran for 10 years.

Today, my inspiration, for what it's worth, came from Paul Kedrosky. I don't really know if he has any discernible skills, but based on his Tweets, he is intellectually far flung, yet there seems to be a coherent and unifying thesis behind it all.

By the way, the annual plan subscribers will see the previous paragraph as : "Paul Kedrosky.....he is intellectually well hung...", so there's still time to sign up.

Borrowing from Rodney Dangerfield's classic "Back to School" movie, as Sam Kinison is yelling the day's lesson at him "Yeah, Kedrosky really has a unifying thesis. What that is, I have no clue".

Even though I've now repeated the following phrase about a dozen times to myself and it still sounds derogatory, it's not meant to be so. To me, "Kedrosky is like a Renaissance Man's savant". He may or may not have a readily identifiable and focused skill, but he is skilled across a broad canvases' broad canvas..

Anyway, in a brief Twitter dialogue he used the phrase of today's blog title. I asked for his permission and he said he had hundreds more. Actually, he said that he had hundreds more from where that came from, perhaps implying that they may have been purloined.

Look, have you ever seen the images that I use to illustrate the daily blog's theme? Do you think I really care if it was purloined, borrowed or rendered?

Wasted Optimism"Wasted Optimism". What a perfect expression.

I suppose that as an investor, or trader, everytime you purchase a stock and it fails to perform to your expectations, that becomes an instance of wasted optimism. Entrepreneurs and venture capitalists probably have boundless optimism and rarely look backward.

But I'd like to think that in his depth of thought, Kedrosky intended more.

Just 10 days ago you certainly would not have wasted your optimism by hoping that after an S&P downgrade of US debt the S&P 500 would be right back to its baseline.

That wouldn't be optimism. That would be stupidity, or perhaps well placed contarianism. Regardless, you would have been considered certifiable and would have had a great deal of difficulty getting anyone to buy into your optimism. Imagine trying to transfer your enthusiasm to get retail customers to buy stocks at such a time.

A few days ago I characterized myself as a cynic and short term pessimist, but long term optimist.

I don't really know what that means, but I've believed that for years, despite the lack of internal consistency.

When I was younger, after my first investing experience, I was convinced that I would be retired by age 30. That kind of short term optimism was unwarranted and didn't really work out as I'd envisioned.

Now, my long term horizon and short term outlook are beginning to converge. Not because I've undergone some intrinsic change in outlook, but because the clock keeps ticking.

Now, I'd like to think that I can retire sometime before death. Even though I don't work anymore, I look at the trading thing as my job. It would be great to hand that to my kids, once their parole officer finds them.

So in the meantime, I take my long term optimism and short term pessimism and just throw money at stocks and hope something makes sense. Long stocks, short calls. Long ultrashort ETF's, short on their calls, Long volatility index, short the call. What was that unifying hypothesis?

Today, I had the luxury of some cash as my shares of Caterpillar and Freeport McMoran were assigned. On my wish list were Deere, Chesapeake Energy, Microsoft, Rio Tinto and something else that I can't recall.

See the problem?

I am utterly convinced that by the time I meet my maker the market will have carried me to great riches. That's the optimist in me, even though the outcome is predicated somewhat on my death. That part is a bit of a downer.

This week? Eh, not so much.Not entirely convinced we're getting there without a stop, despite Monday's glorious market.

Despite the nice sustained climb in the markets from mid-week last week and on, I purchased Deere, Chesepeake Energy and more Freeport McMoran in the morning with the expectation that they would go down by week's end.

So with the optimistic sense that I was right about the pessimistic trend for the week, I sold a $75 option of Deere, purchased at $76 for $2.50 in the hope that it would be called away from me after trades close on Friday.

I did the same with Freeport, buying shares at $45.75 and selling the August $45 call option for $1.63. I did the same with Freeport last week. Same idea, maybe even the same shares in some sort of market recycling phenomenon, hopefully with the same outcome.

But in a show of short term optimism, I sold by Chesapeake calls at the $32 level, having picked up shares at $31.75 and receiving $0.60 for the contracts.

Go crazy.

I often think back to Alan Greenspan's famous and oft repeated comment about "unbridled enthusiasm".

No wait, that was Seinfeld. I think Greenspan said "irrational exuberance". I always get the two confused. I think Greenspan was the guy with big ears and glasses. Seinfeld was the one married to Andrea Mitchell.

Both though make a statement about optimism. Llike calling someone a "savant" those statements may be disparaging, even if that's not the intention.

My guess is that Greenspan meant to be disparaging. Seinfeld? Definitely disparaging.

Me? Again, not so much.

Optimism and pessimism are just parts of the sine curve that we keep cycling through in the markets. Lately, I hear many more people talking about "rho" or the correlation between events. Whether my optimism is well correlated with a rising market is irrelevant to me, as I am only optimistic that stocks will churn in one neighborhood, then move on to another neighborhood and just churn some more before moving on again and again.

Once you start getting so many people focusing on something, like correlation statistics, its bound to be passe. With everyone having their hands on the same data and interpreting it similarly that can only mean a decidedly opposite outcome.

Of that I'm certainly optimisitc. Long term. Short term.

And if I'm wrong, I won't be next time around.

 

Option to Profit - Make your Portfolio Work for You.

Now available at Amazon and other retailers

Hop SIng and Paw Blaze a New PathAmerican Tower ChartMake you Portfolio Work for You!Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  noco

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Now you can Order direct  from publisher. Use 10% Discount Code P4S2ZD8H

 

  



Monday
Aug152011

Where Does the Time Go?


 

KidsEvery time my kids, niece and nephew get together at our house, I have a deeply rooted need to snap a picture.

Always in the same location, always the same pose. My nephew and niece have learned how to position themselves so as to make it difficult for me to PhotoShop them out of the picture.

Seriously, why would I want to look at them everyday?

But they're very bright and have long ago figured me out. They know that I'm not likely to do it if it takes too much energy, so they choose their positions carefully. They no longer sit next to one another at the ends. As a result, my PhotoShop skills have really waned due to disuse, whereas had I had the motivation I could have actually expanded those skills significantly.

One of their favorite sayings, always following some lack of common sense action of mine is "Uncle George, you went to Harvard?"

Jokes on them. I'm not really their uncle.

Although the dogs come and go, the kids stay the same, other than the fact that they're not kids anymore, with the youngest soon to leave her teenage years behind. Sort of like an option's expiration, only with a much better future.

What made me very happy yesterday, in adddition to the fact that it was the best picture ever in the series and only required a single take, was that my niece requested the photo opportunity. I didn't have to beg, nor did I need to cajole and I was able to stop payment on the checks.

WIn - win, especially since my bank doesn't assess me a stop payment fee.

It's funny how, as you get older, you find yourself spouting the same aphorisms that your parents regaled you with when you were too young to appreciate any one else's experience. In this case it's how quickly time passes by.

Someday, I'll probably assemble the shots taken over the years just to depress myself about the passage of time, but that would take motivation and effort, both in short supply. Instead, I'll just stare at the gray hairs lining the floor after haircuts.

As quickly as those years seem to have gone, some other things tranpsire so painfully slowly.

Take August, for example. Although nearly each and everyday has been a rollercoaster ride, the kind that I never tire of, as long as the ups and downs are in equal measure, it has just crawled along.

Although the month was filled with happy and sad moments, a graduation and a funeral (I probably dont need to add, "respectively" here), the month still dragged entirely because it happened to be one of those 5 week options cycles.

Man I hate those.

I don't mind the over-emphasis on the market's down movements, but what I do mind is that extra week. I mind that even more than the grocery store "special" offering an extra 20% product  in the shampoo bottle, but having to pay 30% more.

Although we have just that one final week to go, I wish it would have ended already. Not to ease the pain, because that really hasn't been too bad, but to get my hands on more options premiums. I can't wait for the August contracts to expire. That's still true even though since this past August still has a chance to be the best options premium month I've ever had.

Isn't volatility wonderful?

With an additional week to sell some options, I'm within reach of my personal monthly best, without worry that an asterisk will need to be placed in my spreedsheet. Having shrivelled genitalia is a small price to pay for all of that income and since I use only generic steriods, my expenses are low.

It all goes to the bottom line.

Once the weekly contracts became more common, I really gravitated to them, now looking increasingly for those opportunities. Unfortunately, some of my favorite stocks, although highly liquid, such as Dow Chemical and DuPont, don't yet have weekly options, whereas "drek" like Harbin Energy does.

So my trading still comes at a flurry on the first Monday and Tuesday of each cycle and then markedly slows down, other than for the few weeklies. Shares like Freeport McMoran, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others keep the income rolling in through the month, but it's still heavily concentrated to the cycle's beginning,

On Monday, I'll need to replace Caterpillar and Freeport McMoran. At the moment, I'm leaning toward Deere, Chesapeake Energy, Rio Tinto and maybe even Microsoft, which goes ex-dividend on Tuesday. If I'm able to get any of those at just the right prices, meaning right near a strike price, the near the money or in the money options premiums will take the month to new highs.

As I type away, the early reports are of positive opens in Australia and Singapore, but that doesn't translate very well here, unless there's something cataclysmic happening. Since most of my remaining August options are still out of the money I'd like to see a nice higher opening, even if it means paying a higher price for the items on my wish list.

As the September cycle approaches, I'm carefully looking at the more favorable premiums as the volatility has risen and wondering whether it's time to adopt an earlier strategy.

Back during the market bottom in 2008 and 2009, I was actually selling out of the money calls, hoping to capture greater stock capital gains. I could do that since the options premiums, even for the out of the money positions were really very good, owing to that volatility. That strategy was right for the times, but was replaced by an in the money strategy as the market started on its sustained upward climb in 2009.

Given the options, and by that I mean choices, I think that I would rather not go back in time. Even though the grey hairs and the aging kids are making me increasingly forlorn, I think I'd rather stay gray. I've learned alot over the years and don't think I'd want to tarade any of that back.

I think I'd also like to stay with the current in the money strategy. I like it at these higher levels.

The air is actually much better at 12,000 than it was at Dow 11,000 even though the premiums are much sweeter closer and closer to hell.

As the kids are getting older, I know that the photo opportunities are going to get less and less likely. Although I'm sure that if properly motivated I could computer age them appropriately on the exisitng photo collection, that's probably not as likely to give me the same satisfaction as the real thing has over the years.

In the meantime, I'll just have to get my satisfaction from knowing that with each month comes along a new option cycle and some great memories of cycles past

I just wish that time would go by much faster.

Did anyone say Daily Options? How about grandchildren?

 

Option to Profit - Make your Portfolio Work for You.

Now available at Amazon and other retailers

Hop SIng and Paw Blaze a New PathAmerican Tower ChartMake you Portfolio Work for You!Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  noco

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Now you can Order direct  from publisher. Use 10% Discount Code P4S2ZD8H

 

  



Thursday
Aug112011

Depends on your Perspective


 

Study after reputable study indicates and continually confirms just one thing. An absolute and universal truth that ultimately forms the foundation of so many things that we do.

Size does matter.

Additionally studies also validate the concept that "Stupid is as stupid does", sometimes referred to as "The Gump Principle" in academic circles.

Despite the denial that we all go through, size is everything. Bigger, better and more. It's all about size. Don't be swayed by the girth argument. You want girth? Find yourself a steroid juiced linebacker and then get back to me.

As an aside, before you try to point out what appears to be an exception to that rule, the short ugly guy in sweat pants with the babes hanging off each arm? It's the size of the bankroll. That usually trumps everything else or every figurative shortcoming.

PerspectiveDepending on your perspective, you can have a sliding scale on what constitutes appropriate size, however.

Take yesterday afternoon. After a big drop it looked as if the Jamie Dimon effect was being to take hold. He spoke in calm, reassuring and upbeat tones about what the American economy has going for it.

In the interview background, in otherwise scenic Monterey, California was a Chase Bank ATM. High magnification video indicated that 40% of customers attempting to withdraw cash were greeted with insufficient funds notices. The sight of them kicking the machine really didn't require high power magnification.

Luckily CNBC has that 7 second audio delay that MSNBC forgot to use.

As Dimon spoke, the market picked up about 200 points. Granted it was still down 150, but by comparison, with a new persepctive on size, down 150 seemed minscule.

Down 150 is the new up 25. What used to elicit a shriek of disbelief of orgasmic frenzy levels now barely even gets a "meh".

We are still talking about stocks, right?

As I awoke Wednesday morning I discovered that I had some unexpected cash sitting in my account. Someone had exercised some of the now deep in the money ProShares Ultrashort VIX ETF that I owned.

That's where the Gump Principle comes in and did so from both sides.

For starters, in hindsight, I shouldn't have sold those calls. I left lots of money on the table as the volatility index has been on a tear as the market has been plumbing new depths. Even more so, as the ETF was levereged.

So idiot that I can be, I made my 10% return on shares and options for the 3 weeks of holding, but it could have been much more.

Based on the past 2 weeks, even much, much more wouldn't have been nearly enough to be enough.

But I wondered about the guy that actually exercised the option. Why? Why do it, especially with more than a week remaining and no divdend to be captured? If you want to lock in profit, why not sell the option instead of shelling out the cash and then presumabaly selling the shares?

My guess is that there was a breakdown in the perfection of options pricing so that purchasing the shares resulted in perhaps a lower yield, but greater gains.

That would mean either an idiot on the ask side or the bid side of that proposed transaction. Maybe both, so good luck getting them together to make a market. Greed is a form of stupidity.

In an exercise of my own greed, I quickly used the proceeds and snapped up some more shares of down-beaten DuPont, which goes ex-dividend on Thursday.

The numbers were small, but right now anything looks good. Purchased at $54.45, then a $0.41 dividend and a $1.12 options premium for 7 trading days. That's the best I could do right now, but from my perspective it's a big deal. It's especially a big deal if this most recent plunge follows the same playbook as that in 2009. At that time I loaded up on high yielding quality companies and kept my fingers crossed, while selling 5% and 10% out of the money calls. In that way, I accepted less income in anticipation and hopes of greater capital gains.

So let's review.

Monday we were down 600, Tueday up 450 and Wednesday down 520.

To put it into a personal standardized perspective, while pointing out the disequilibrium, on Monday I Iost 220 Color TV's, while on Tueday I was given 146 and Wednesday I returned 100. (Don't understand? See Some Things Don't Get Old)

To me, that's actually a very positive trend. How's that for a warped perspective? And one that's pretty stupid, too.

But the reason that I see it as a good trend is that the simple math always dictates that it requires more effort to recover from a drop than it does to actually drop.

Think of that concept as being no different from gravitational forces. As I get older that analogy is much more apropos as I gaze into a full length mirror. You know, they really should make bras for those things.

For example, let's take numbers ripped from the headlines. When the Dow falls 2000 points from the 12,719 level to 10,719 in one month , that's a 15.7% drop. However, from that level it takes an 18.7% gain to get back to the summit.

But in my case despite seeing the market give back Tuesday's gain and then nearly another 20% on top of that, I was still left with 46 Color TV's.

Wow. See what I mean. Down 150 is the new up 25.

It's all in the perspective and being stupid enough to accept that perspective. That's a winning combination, or as we know in the aftermath of the Charlie Sheen debacle, "Winning is the new losing". It's the kind of denial and re-definition of standards that still makes it so profitable to deluge the world with penis extender e-mails. Want and believe enough and you can convince yourself of anything.

Now, if only I could figure out a way to re-monetize those TV's and buy some gold, or at least those gold clad Buffalo nickels, that are priced at a gold equivalent of $20,000 per ounce.

That'll show the world who's stupid.