Hope to Survive the Change

Although it's highly likely that my post sedation delerium would turn out a daily entry far more coherent than usual, I turned to the kindness of guest bloggers to preclude the chance of typing out some long held family secret.

Today's guest blogger, Tony Vahl, may be known to many as the co-founder of the popular DailySkew.com, no stranger to an irreverent look at events pretending to be serious. An accountant by day, he finds the time to put numbers aside and focuses on letters and punctuation marks to the delight of his readership. Follow Tony on Twitter and help support a life giving cause

I am not an Options Trader.  Never traded options in my life.  I hope some personal eyewitness testimony will suffice.

I come at this as someone who saw the Housing Bubble bursting back in 2006, and felt like a lone wolf crying in the wilderness.  Smiling real estate salesman kept telling me at the time, "Don't worry.  The market will hold firm.  After
all, this is Florida."

Don't worry. Be happy. What could go wrong?

Yeah, right.

Two years later, I was told, "Buying a home now is like trying to catch a falling knife." This time they were right.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  A $120k home I purchased four years ago is now worth half that. Unexpected medical bills have put an employed individual in a stable career and his family on the brink of foreclosure. 

Anyway, since I'm not a trader, I figured I'd share with you what I'm seeing on the ground.  What I see is change.  Not just loose change. 

I'm seeing stores going out business.  Take Payless Shoe Stores (TIcker PSS), for example.  They just can't compete with Zappos, now wholly owned by Amazon. 

Isn't it funny that Zappos has an issue with the security of the credit cards of their customers after Payless announces store closings?  It's too late.  It's like that scene in Star Trek II, when Khan started the Genesis Wave.  He hit the "Commit" button, and then there was no stopping it.  You couldn't even switch stations, the force was that powerful.

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It Pays to Underthink

Everyone has probably met someone who suffers from the tendency to overthink everything in life.

You know, these are the people that are obviously very bright, but often get paralyzed at the prospect of making a decision. These are the very same people that do poorly in school and especially on standardized exams because they begin to read so much into the question at hand and begin to see so many rational explanations for the questions that they are unable to choose from among he options.

These are not the people that you want to be air traffic controllers.

That's very different from someone wo is just too stupid to correctly choose from among the options. You know, the kind that have their name stenciled in at the parking lot of the COPS studio, often have tattooed knuckles and don't do terribly well when there's alcohol on board.

These are also the people that you do not want to be air traffic controllers.

For the former group, options especially limit their ability to act. When faced with a multiple choice question with four of 5 options, they always see two or three that are very reasonable choices and they just can't pull the trigger to commit to a single answer.

Interestingly, they tend to do well on the kind of standardized exams that include such choices as; a,b and c are correct; b and d only are correct, such as found in medical, dental and law standardized examinations. They also do well on essay format exams because they can map out their thought processes, despite frequently never answering the actual question.

By the way, in none of the above scenarios was I referring to myself, although I like being at a stage in life that I don't really have to think anymore.

For the most part it's now auto-pilot. It's either "all of the above" or "none of the above" for me.

I challenge myself each morning by choosing which tee shirt and coffee mug combination will help me to start the day. Together with Dilbert, The Altucher Confidential and The New Tork Times Obituary pages, I have my rituals highly defined.

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Crumbs, Anyone

It's that time of the month again.

No, I'm not being visited by Aunt Flo, as the euphamism would go, if indeed it were germane.

No, it's the end of the September options cycle in just a few short days. Time to see if there are any crumbs left out there just waiting to be taken. And you do have to act quickly, because before you know it those crumbs get smaller and smaller, before they disappear entirely.

I suppose that since I now try to find as many weekly options opportunities as possible, that third Friday of each month has lost a bit of its significance. Now its more or less like any other Friday.

I've never had a visit from Aunt Flo, but I can't imagine that her dropping by on a weekly basis would be very good.

In a way, I guess that's as sad as when you know that Aunt Flo won't be visiitng anymore. Fortunately, that single long hair on my chin that popped up after Flo disappeared is obscured by my full beard.

By the same token, most people I know no longer deal in euphamisms, anyway. They get right down to brass tacks, no sense beating around the bloody bush.

Hmm, now I'm not certain if the preceding itself was a euphamism for something, but no matter, I just like using uniquely British adjectives.

As I looked back at the monthly statistics for the past few years, I should have been tipped off that this wouldn't have been the kind of month to e-mail home about.

It seems that the month following what turns out to be my best options premium month of the year is a dog.

And that was this month because that was last month.

Since options premiums keep me afloat, I have a need to trade, but times like these offer the biggest dilemmas.

Holding on to so many positions that are significantly below their purchase prices, it's hard to justify trying to optimize options premiums by writng near the money contracts when their assignment would result in meanigful capital losses.

Although I always check my spreadsheets to see how much in accumulated premiums each position has captured, I still have a reluctance to take the loss, even when it is mitigated or even fully offset by those premiums.

I'm not beyond rationalizing my actions, though.

On days such as the first two trading days of this final week, you see the clock ticking away on the one hand, but you also see the possibility of that silver lining in depressed stock prices, or at the very least the lack of support in silver prices, as I own unhedged shares of an UltraShort Silver ETF.

Will there be some good news coming out of the European Union sending our markets for a nice climb? I sure wouldn't want to miss out on recouping some of those paper losses, but those crumbs, those 0.5% options premiums, do I really want to leave those on the table?

The answer to those questions are "who knows" and "not really"

The full answer to the latter question is actually "not really, but I don't want to feel like a schmuck".

But you do have to eat, you can't really let pride get in the way. As small as they may be, those crumbs can add up.

And so, in a measured reaction to a meandering day, I did get the opportunity to sell call options on JP Morgan, Freeport McMoRan, Halliburton, Williams-Sonoma and the Triple Q's.

Actually, with the exception of Williams-Sonoma, if the others do get assigned, I'll still be taking capital gains on the underlying stocks, so the risk will be determined by how wildly they may explode upward between today and Friday's close.

Opportunities potentially lost. That ends up being the performance metric, but since I don't harbor regrets, I also rarely learn lessons. You can fool me over and over again as long as those premiums add up and losses have some strategic value in reducing tax liability.

When I did add the crumbs up it was worth the risk, given the reward and the need to be able to feed Laszlo the Dog.

It's either crumbs or go back to work, not to mention the shriveled carcass of a wiener dog.

Hmmm. Weiner dog.

If anyone reading this is old enough to remember Bob Denver's character, Maynard G. Krebs, you would know my reaction to the very thought of "work".

Whatever optimism there's been in the markets during the last hour of each of the two past trading sessions it's a little frightening to thank what it's been based upon.

First, the rumor of Chinese intervention to buy Italian debt turned Monday's market on a dime.

But you know that we're really in trouble and living a life of deep delusion if we think that Chinese benevolence is going to be the remedy that saves the European Union's financial systems.

Today's good news was that there wouldn't be a Greek default.

At least not today.

The other good news was that somone had interpreted something that Angela Merkel said as being of a positive note, regarding satisfying Finland's need for Greek collateral.

When I wrote about what was wagging the dog the other day even in my wildest dreams I never would have guessed Finland.

But Finland, too, was just in search of crumbs. Whatever assets Greece actually has rights to, Finland wants it. After all, with its dying Nokia enterprise, what else does it have going for it? And besides, those reindeer need to eat, too.

So I know the feeling.

Wherever you can get those crumbs, get them.

Tomorrow? Who knows what tomorrow brings. New rumors, maybe some actual news, maybe not.

No matter. This week ends in a few days and a whole new world of opportunities comes along.

This time, I'm hoping for the whole loaf and will gladly take the crumbs, too.

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When is 300 Points not 300 Points?

The answer is easy.

This past Friday the market closed down 300 points.

For some reason, it just didn't seem that way. That sense of disbelief and denial just wasn't there, but I don't think it was desensitization or numbing.

Although news is no longer pre-requisite for big moves, we did have news that was painted as being the root cause of the drop. That was the resignation of Jeurgin Stark from the European Central Bank, ostensibly over a disagreement between northern and southern European nations over how to handle the Greek crisis. This came on the heels of the German Supreme Court ruling that it was constitutional for Germany to participate in a Greek bailout.

Of course, Stark's announcement pointed to health considerations.

For me, I thought that Juergen Stark was a character in the 1960's cult comedy "Get Smart" ad that the market had 40 years to respond to that news. So much for that worthless aphorism that the market looks forward by 6 months and discounts the future.

Also turns out that was "Shtarker"

Maybe the day didn't seem like any other 300 point drop day because it was the day that the NYSE commemorated the tenth anniversary of the September 11th tragedies.

There were moments of silence preceding the opening bell and then throughout the first 2 hours of trading, each representing a specific event on that horrible day.

There were many of those events, each one more unbelievable than the preceding and still hard to believe could actually happen to us.

Or to anybody.

Throughout the weekend there were ceremonies and special broadcasts.

The human mind may forget some of the details of that day, 10 years will do that, but the emotions were still there each and every time that the fall of the Towers was replayed.

Beyond that, the poignant personal stories in New York, the Pentagon and aboard United 93 still evoke tears. There's no numbness, it's still very fresh and painful to think about those personal stories.

Nearly everything elicited moist eyes. Paul Simon's slow and somber rendition of "Sounds of Silence" was perfectly appropriate and gave an opportunity to interpret the meaning of each and every word.

I didn't know anyone that was directly impacted by the death of a loved one or friend that day. I know that fellow high school and college alumni were victims that day, but I knew none of their names.

I happened to be in New York of September 10, 2001, having driven up early that morning upon receiving news that my mother had a stroke.

I'd made that 200 mile drive many times, very often as a day trip.

As it turned out that day was no different, as the stroke was relatively minor and I felt confident enough to return home, while already beginning to map out our family's next steps.

I still recall seeing the Twin Towers as I entered New Jersey on the return trip home, but just quickly glanced at them, as I had always done, never lingering, unless traffic was stalled.

This time, the glance was perhaps less, as I recall being on the phone with a friend, trying to stump him with a piece of baseball trivia. I knew he would know the answer, since he was a sports trivia savant, even more so when it came to the Pittsburgh Pirates, his boyhood hometown.

The question was whose pitching record was Roger Clemens seeking to break for best winning percentage in a single season.

I just needed someone to talk to and joke with after a long day. He was just the tonic. The trivia question was just an unnecessary excuse.

He's gone now, too, but I can still recall every word of that converstaion, coincidentally etched in time.

As it turned out, Clemens never broke Roy Face's best winning percentage record, but who cares?

The next day, of course, is now one of those very few of our collective experience that people will always remember where they were and what they were doing as the news came through and then unfolded.

Two weeks later I was back in New York, this time to move my mother down to live with us.

The Towers weren't there on the horizon and the air was still thick. That was the very last time she'd ever see New York, the city that gave her refuge. Freed from the Nazis, freed from Soviet Communists, orphaned and alone, but like so many others, discovered incredible inner strength and helped to defeat evil.

Now it was time to escape, one last time.

Thinking about a 300 point drop reminds you how meaningless some things are. Most things we can recover from. In fact, a 300 point loss, for most people, is just an event marked on paper. Unless you close out positions in panic, they're just unrealized losses.

Not so for the events we've just commemorated. Even if there is no direct connection, there is a direct connection and a grief that will never go away.

Following Friday's 300 point loss, there's every reason to believe that the market will return to life on Monday, every reason to believe that at least there is a potential for rebirth.

For those that perished on that day that potential has been extinguished. Yet, much has been said about what that horrible day and its events has given us as a nation and as a people.

3,000 victims murdered on a single day, 2,000 orphans, 1,000 children that never met their father, another 5,000 military fatalities and, yet, Americans have rebuilt their lives and nation.

Amazingly, there never really was an endemic sense of panic. There was the immediate "fight or flight" adrenaline rush of those that due to their unfortunate destiny to be in a certain place at a specific time, but that's a response that we're wired for.

When it came right down to a rational assessment of the immediate hour and then the future, it is incredible how quickly individuals, businesses and our government started to move forward.

Together.

We still disagree. Just look at how long it took to get any kind of agreement over the New York memorial and rebuilding project, but we're wired to do that as well.

In free societies, that's what people to. They express themselves. Human expression is the bane of evil and of those that seek to promote evil.

Buildings get destroyed, innocent people are murdered, but our basic wiring is unchanged and we don't cower in caves or behind women and children. We don't attack places of worship, soft targets on non-combatants.

For me, watching thousands gather to commemorate the lives of those lost and the physical evidence of our monuments in respect of their lives and contributions is a greater victory than the death of a miscreant terrorist leader.

Bin Laden will be remembered as he died, even by those unwilling to admit the vision of him aged and prisoner in his own home. He grew old and pathetic. Our ideals and national spirit have not. They've become renewed, strengthened and resolute.

At first, I thought that a 300 point down day occuring on the day that we were commemorating the tenth anniversary of victims was an affront to their memory. Couldn't we do better?

But then it dawned on me that the absence of panic and the focus on things far more important is a small, but fitting tribute to the legacy of those that have helped to carve out our newly strengthened national identity.

Invest like TheAcsMan

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  hoco blogs

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

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All that Glitters

There are lots of things that I'm not very good at.

One, apparently, is the inability to not end an opening sentence with a preposition.

I'm also continually reminded that I don't clean countertops very well, although it's still not clear whether I can't master the process or am just disinterested in the proocess.

I also tend to use multiple negatives in the same sentence.

But the one thing that bothers me is my inability to understand idiomatic expressions. That weakness haunted me back in my SAT days.

Math? No problem. Same with reading comprehension, analogies, synonyms and antonyms. I was even able to keep those prepositions and negatives in check when it really counted. But once you started throwing those idioms at me I was at a loss.

Fortunately, I think that idiom interpretation held a relative weighting role similar to the traditionally recommended place of gold in your portfolio, so it probably didn't contribute to the final score all that much.

I don't do well with adages, either.

I do understand the expression "All that glitters is not gold" in that there are either other things that actually glitter, or perhaps there are other things that have the ability to entice.

I guess it could also mean that just because something glitters doesn't make it valuable, but that's the least likely one that I think of when I hear the expression.

So using my contraindicatoromometer, that would have to be the correct answer.

And then there's that silver lining thing.

Did the Rwandan carnage really have a silver lining? The Killing Fields of Cambodia? Does there really have to be something good that underlies everything that is so clearly bad?

Is there anything good about rhetorical questions?

The fact that every cloud is said to have a silver lining is akin to "beauty is only skin deep". The stuff that's hidden and out of the way, weither a lining or deeply rooted beauty is totally irrelevant.

If it can't be seen it doesn't exist.

That expression is not likly to need any deep analysis. The correct answer is "all of the above".

These days everyone is touting gold. I'm not, but everyone else seems to be doing so.

What's funny is that it also seems that all of the commercials for buying your old gold and all of the hype about gold parties seem to have died down.

I don't know whether that's due to people realizing they were getting less than bottom dollar for their old gold or the fact that market has already been tapped out at the significantly lower prices of the recent past.

I don't know anything about gold. Yeah, in the early days of my previous life I had played with casting gold using the ancient lost wax technique, even designed our wedding bands, but that's about it. When it comes to gold as an investment or as a hedge, I've got no opinion.

In general. But these aren't general times.

These days, you can cast yourself into one of two camps, more clearly defined than The Bloods and The Crips.

You're either a "Glitterati" or a "Fundamentalist".

I did purchase 10 gold coins for my 2 kids a few years ago as college graduation gifts, never thinking that their value would double. At least not in my lifetime. So call me a Glitterati, but I did so with no conviction.

Despite the fact that my oldest son, thus far the only one to receive his gift had sold three of those coins at about $1500/oz and reinvested in S&P 500 ETF's, I still believe that was a rational trade, mostly because my mantra is "no regrets".

I don't know if that's his mantra, too. Based on some of his college and young adult party pictures I'd say "no regrets" is his mantra for daily life, but I'm not certain that extends into his investing philosophy.

It's funny how your approach to money changes when it's your money that's at stake.

Other than that one time foray into the metal itself, somewhere I have a nearly 40 year old silver bar. I think it may have been 25 ounces and I think it was at about $4/oz. But then again, I really have no clue where it is. What I do know is that I fared better than the Hunt Brothers, who even if they had held onto the silver they had purchased in an attempt to corner the market, still wouldn't have reached a breakeven.

And that's despite using 1979 dollars.

So as gold and silver have been on this upward tear, for people like me and by which I mean anyone with a shred of rational thought, would assume that their prices were primed to drop.

Last week that one day $100 drop seemed to be the start of a well deserved return to normalcy and perhaps a return of the stock market to more sane intra-day movements.

Wrong and wrong.

Down $100. No problem, just go up $150 and then some for good measure.

Now, I do have to admit that I have been slowly accumulating shares of the ProShares Silver Ultrashort ETF.

I first started doing that when those shares were at $17. They subsequently moved up to about $21, as silver fell to $32 or so, per ounce.

Since I hedge just about everything, I was more than happy to pocket a very healthy option speculative and volatility driven premium and give up my shares.

Since then, though, silver too has been on an unabated upward climb and I've again started accumulating shares.

I've done so always in the belief that silver would join gold and return to its senses.

It hasn't and neither have investors, or speculators, whatever you want to call them.

Tuesday, after about a 300 point early day drop in the Dow Jones and a $25 rise in gold's price, some sense of normalcy returned. Obviously, on the basis of 3 hours worth of sane behavior, I feel comfortable projecting the next 10 years into the future of the markets.

The Dow finished down just 100 points and gold lost about $25 in just a couple of minutes.

While it showed as much as a $9 loss, it did end the day up $4. Silver on the other hand was down all day long, but came off of its lows for the session.

I suppose that Ron Paul, probably still seething over the Tulip Bulb Crash, is happily telling everyone who shows the least interest in listening that he told them so.

I can't blame him if he were to do that, especially since he should get his moment in the sun after 40 years of trying to spread that message that has clearly been a losing proposition for the vast majority of that time.

These days stocks are clearly not the ones with glitter. It's certainly not real estate or European bonds, either.

Although I've never been one to pay too much attention to price charts, I'm having a hard time understanding why people don't look at a chart of gold or silver and apply the same kind of cautionary notes that they would if they saw a stock or index demonstrate the same upward climb.

That cautionary note is called "gravity".

I do understand the perspective of the crumbling world economy being thrown into the mix as perhaps being the reason given for the available support of a continued climb. But I'm old enough to remember we've had lousy financial periods over the past 30 years and nowhere near the same reaction in metals.

Granted, the Russian economy of the 90's was not precisely of the same weight as the European Union of today, but that would have been a great time for gold to rocket. At least the European Union of today has some banking and financial standards and the existence of some relatively healthy members who are willing to prop up the union.

On the other hand, it's hard to say with any kind of certainty that Russia of today still has any banking standards. Can you imagine the devastation that would have occured back in 1998? And yet, gold did nothing and the stock markets, fueled by technology soared.

I wish that people would have the same sense and sensibility that I have when it comes to the emotions that surround this glittering stuff. Although I did take a pick and shovel with me as I paid a brief visit to the cemetery the other day, common sense eventually took hold after I had broken into a third crypt.

That's when I remembered that I just wasn't cut out to be a Glitterati and was no longer a practicing necrodontist. I needed to focus back on Fundamentalist concepts, instead.

The one thing you can say about the fundamentals is that they definitely do not glitter. They're boring, but at least no one is going to be blaring on my TV suggesting that I go through my old drawers for unwanted fundamentals.

And no, there will never be any alcohol fueled "fundamentals parties" with my many fundamentalist friends.

That would just be weird.

Invest like TheAcsMan

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  hoco blogs

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. Use 10% Discount Code P4S2ZD8H

  

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Rebirth

It's hard to say whether my short term memory lapses are taking center stage or whether I truly had never heard of the story of the "West Memphis Three".

The latter seems strange to me because I am a news junkie. I don't particularly care for history, but eventually current events change their nature and become parts of the annals of our collective existence.

At that point I no longer care.

Either I completely overlooked their 18 year old story or have completely forgotten the story. Either way, I need to be questioning something.

I'm not even remotely going to try and pass judgment on the three men convicted of murderering three young boys. They were just released from prison in some obtuse kind of plea bargain and appeared before the press. I didn't bother reading about the events surrounding the case because now it is in the realm of history.

I don't do history.

But I did watch the press conference the other day with a totally clean slate. Here were three young men who had spent half of their lives in prison and now they were sitting in front of cameras and reporters, clean cut and well spoken.

They were just beginning the process of being born again, except that they still have the burden of a lifetime of memories and possibly guilt and regrets.

It's hard to run away from your mind even if you have some really deep seated pathology.

On the other hand, half a world away you can be reborn as often as you like for a mere $6. Buddhist priests in Thailand perform very popular rebirth ceremonies whereby an individual can shed their date of birth and start all over.

Why is that important? Because culturally the date of birth is tied to beliefs regarding luck and fortune. Don't like your luck? Don't like the way your life had been going, just pay your six bucks and lay down in a coffin . While you're clutching some flowers and listening to priestly prayers a white silken cloth is draped and undraped over your uncovered casket. WIth each pass, a bit of the stench of your life is being removed.

Don't care for you new date of birth? Hey, what's another six?

Depending on your ability to sustain a sense of denial you may be able to run away from your past and memories.

I had my own sense of re-birth this past Friday, but it was unlike either of the two previous rebirths described. Instead, it was almost more like a Hindu vision of going back to a previous life. The kind of retrograde rebirth in recognition of a life poorly lived.

It all started as I became resigned to the fact that I would likely have no trading opportunities this past Friday. My Sugar Momma and I decided to take advantage of the opportunity and went out for a rare weekday afternoon movie.

We went to see "The Help". Of course, I didn't read the book and SM did.

Regardless of knowing the outcome or not, we both loved the movie, not just for the message and story of hope and determination, but also because we both enjoy period movies.

Here's the problem. While the movie took place during 1963, one of the maids in the film was clearly using an Electrolux vacuum canister model that wasn't available in the early sixtes.

I saw the flashback to my time as a door to door Electrolux salesman and immediately recognized the disticnctive blue color, but more importantly, the rectangular shape. If anything, a well healed southern family in 1963 would have their domestic help using a gray Model S. You know, the cylindrical canister.

Then I remembered. I didn't really like that life. I didn't want to be reborn as a vacuum cleaner salesman.

Imagine being a 50 year old career vacuum man and starting off each morning in a team meeting where you could always count on someone saying "Our vacuums really suck". Even more sadly, laughing at those words day in and day out.

West Memphis Three judicial rebirth? Good.

Buddhist rebirth with profit motive? Doubly good.

Hindu rebirth, especially if leading to a lower form of life? Not so good.

Which now brings us to the Monday following the third Friday of every month.

From a purely option premiums perspective last month was one of the very best I'd ever had. I would love to live and relive that month over. That would be a great rebirth. To top it off, to have the memories remain intact would truly be something very special.

But those great premiums came at a price. I wasn't assigned any shares, so I won't have any funds in the portfolio to pick up any meaningful new shares at what I think are bargain prices.

That's the part that I'd like to forget. The fact that all of my holdings closed under their strike prices.

Well under.

The nice thing about selling options, whether the monthly or weekly variety, is that at least they offer the chance for a new beginning. Granted, it costs more than $6 to exercise that right, especially since each stock has its own life, but I can certainly agree with the Thai believers in that the latter part of July and the first three weeks of August 2011 were very bad times to begin an investment's life.

I have no clue what the future will hold, but I don't think it's as bad as a morning vacuum pep talk or even as bad as last month's market.

I'm not likely to forget last month anytime soon, but it will become ancient history, just like 2008.

No matter what this new cycle will bring, it too will be over, maybe as early as this Friday for some holdings and no more than 4 weeks from now for the rest. That's the kind of life cycle I can deal with. Maybe that's why the last cycle was so insufferable. It was one of those damn 5 week options periods.

In the meantime with this month and rebirth to look forward to, I just need to make some room in my brain to deal with all of the new information.

Time for my monthly spring cleaning between the ears.

I think I'll be tossing vacuums, justly or unjustly freed prisoners and last month aside. I'll also be tossing every episode of every evening show on Comedy Central aside so I can just watch them again and find them funny all over again.

No memories and no regrets.

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Collecting Crumbs

It's that time of the month again.

No, I'm not being visited by Aunt Flo, as the euphamism would go, if indeed it were germane.

No, it's the end of yet another options cycle in just a few short days. Time to see if there are any crumbs left out there just waiting to be taken. And you do have to act quickly, because before you know it those crumbs get smaller and smaller, before they disappear entirely.

I suppose that since I now try to find as many weekly options opportunities as possible, that third Friday of each month has lost a bit of its significance. Now its more or less like any other Friday.

I've never had a visit from Aunt Flo, but I can't imagine that her dropping by on a weekly basis would be very good.

In a way, I guess that's as sad as when you know that Aunt Flo won't be visiitng anymore. Fortunately, that single long hair on my chin that popped up after Flo disappeared is obscured by my full beard.

By the same token, most people I know no longer deal in euphamisms, anyway. They get right down to brass tacks, no sense beating around the bloody bush.

Hmm, now I'm not certain if the preceding itself was a euphamism for something, but no matter, I just like using uniquely British adjectives.

Since options premiums keep me afloat, I have a need to trade, but times like these offer the biggest dilemmas. Those times are when I have shares that are at a paper lss and haven't had option premiums written on them for the most recen sycle, whether weekly or monthly.

Holding on to so many positions that are significantly below their purchase prices, it's hard to justify trying to optimize options premiums by writng near the money contracts when their assignment would result in meanigful capital losses.

Although I always check my spreadsheets to see how much in accumulated premiums each position has captured, I still have a reluctance to take the loss by selling a near the money option, even when it is mitigated or even fully offset by those premiums.

I'm not beyond rationalizing my actions, though.

But when you see the clock ticking away on the one hand, you also see the possibility of that silver lining in depressed stock prices, or at the very least the lack of support in silver prices, as I sometimes own unhedged shares of an UltraShort Silver ETF.

Will there be some good news coming out of the European Union sending our markets for a nice climb? I sure wouldn't want to miss out on recouping some of those paper losses, but those crumbs, those 0.5% options premiums, do I really want to leave those on the table?

The answer to those questions are "who knows" and "not really"

The full answer to the latter question is actually "not really, but I don't want to feel like a schmuck".

But you do have to eat, you can't really let pride get in the way. As small as they may be, those crumbs can add up.

And so, in a measured reaction to a meandering day, I often take the opportunity to scrape some last remaining crumbs, by seling options with just a day or two left until their expiration.

I want those premiums, even if their just a matter of pennies.

Pennies count.

The risk you take when taking crumbs, trying to milk every last penny out of an under-performing position is that there will be a wild, completely unexpected explosion to the upside in the hours that remain on the contract.

Opportunities potentially lost. That ends up being the performance metric, but since I don't harbor regrets, I also rarely learn lessons. You can fool me over and over again as long as those premiums add up and losses have some strategic value in reducing tax liability.

When I did add the crumbs up it was worth the risk, given the reward and the need to be able to feed Laszlo the Dog.

It's either crumbs or go back to work, not to mention the shriveled carcass of a wiener dog.

Hmmm. Weiner dog.

If anyone reading this is old enough to remember Bob Denver's character, Maynard G. Krebs, you would know my reaction to the very thought of "work".

So wherever and whenever you can get those crumbs, get them.

Tomorrow? Who knows what tomorrow brings. New rumors, maybe some actual news, maybe not.

No matter. The week always ends in a few days and a whole new world of opportunities comes along.

And with each week you can hope for the whole loaf and gladly take the crumbs, too.