At a Loss

It's around 2 PM on Thursday, but for me the trading week has pretty much come to an end and I stand defeated.

Actually, I lounge defeated. It's really the same thing, just more comfortable and can be sustained for longer periods of time.

As I look back at the week I'm at a loss to explain or to rationalize my continued state of existence. If I don't trade, what am I?

The alternative is frightening and brings back memories of the classic TV character, Maynard G. Krebs," when faced with the possibility of having to do something gainful to support his "footprint."

"Work!"

Bob Denver's character's response to the very possibility of having to work was pretty unrealistic as there was really no evidence that he had ever worked before. Of course I know that sounds like someone's mother using the "how do you know that you don't like liver if you've never tried it," but who knows, Maynard may have liked working.

I like lounging.

Tomorrow will be one of those infrequent days that I will be doing something reasonably constructive and venture more than a few feet from my La-Z-Boy perch. As with most of these days, they were planned a couple of months ago and do contribute to that flickering portion of my ego that still requires self-esteem.

Oh, and they pay well, too.

It's just coincidental that it comes at a week when I've done essentially nothing to advance the argument that I deserve to be perched. Imagine that if your prized talking parakeet stopped talking. I'd probably feed that sucker to our dachshund, Laszlo, who would be so totally self-actualized if only he could get a bird between his jaws.

If I can't do my tricks, what reason is there to keep me going and supplied with a freshly lined cage?I had been hoping to keep doing this even beyond the point that they'll have to start lining my La-Z-Boy.

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Lazy or Respectful?

There was no reason for me to think that while on a cab ride going through the heart of Downtown Nashville on Tuesday, that Dobie Gray would breathe his last breathes on that same day and in that same city.

But that's exactly what happened on that cool and damp day as I went past the famous Ryman Auditorium and saw endless pedestrians with cowboy hats and guitar cases probably sharing the same hopes and dreams, but unlikely to ever find their way into the major leagues of obituary pages, The New York Times.

Other than introducing the song "The In Crowd", which was a bigger hit when Ramsey Lewis covered it, you may know him for his continually popular "Drift Away."

I don't really know him from any of his other works, but I found it poignant when after today's closing bell, where the market dropped an additional 100 points in the last 45 minutes, Bob Pisani on CNBC referred to the market as just having "drifted away."

Maybe Dobie was on his mind.

I've been a Bruce Springsteen fan for nearly 40 years and have seen him in concert a number of times and cities over that time. Along with others, I grieved when the Big Man died, but it was clear at a concert in Baltimore a few years ago that the body was a shell, while the talent and dirve were undying.

Dobie Gray just quietly drifted away.

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Jury Duty

I'm a fairly boring guy. I don't think I've ever initiated a social interaction in my life. Which works out well with my sedentary lifestyle that has me tethered to the La-Z-Boy, only occasionally reaching out for my keyboard and mouse.

The fact that La-Z-Boy stock surged today didn't do much for me as I've never owned the stock, only the lifestyle.

Yet, despite immensely enjoying my sedentary lifestyle, today I learned that there are consequences. Seeing a family of field mice escape from my stomach folds while I was being measured by a tailor for pant alterations was embarrasing, but it's not as if I'll ever see that tailor again.

At least, not if Immigration and Naturalization arrives before next Tuesday, 5 PM.

The very idea that my elastic banded Jorts weren't going to fit me for life hasn't really caused my to rethink the physical aspect of sedentary life, just as long as that cognitive part keeps on moving.

However, that comfort and solitude promises to be disrupted as I've received my first ever notice to be called for jury duty.

Since I went to a high school that was focused on math and the sciences, that didn't leave too much time for civics lessons. My guess is that a class mate of mine, David Viniar who has served as CFO of Goldman Sachs did find the time to take Civics classes in secret, because I've heard no one impugn his name or reputation over the past few difficult years over at Goldman.

But yeah, I know that it's my responsibility. Yeah, yeah, I've heard it before.

Here's the thing.

Not that I'm complaining, but the county that I live in has almost no meaningful crime.

Sure, if its your mailbox that's been knocked over it's pretty major. But if I'm going to do anything, whether it's social or civic duty related, I want it to be exciting.

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Read me a Story

I can still think back to those days when my kids would be put to bed each night with a story.

"Moo. Baa. La La La."

That phrase will be stuck in my mind until the day I die, as like most parents, I found myself reading the same story over and over, night after night, because that was the story that wanted to be heard.

Whatever it took to get the little darlings to sleep. Whatever it took. Even Moo. Baa. La La La.

I was only talked off the ledge because the nice policeman promised me I'd never have to hear those sounds again.

Instead, it was a book devoid of silly sounds, but sadly chronicling the deaths of brave, hungry, thirsty, polite, sleepy and explorers, leaving only a single smart explorer to survive.

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It's Getting Cold

What's in the Szelhamos Portfolio?

I'm glad I'm sitting indoors today.

Even Laszlo the Dog doesn't want to go outside. It's cold, dreary and the grass is wet after a record 13 inches of rain in September. I suppose that dachshund bellies are close enough to the wet grass that they'd rather take a respite from romping on days like today.

Laszlo is sharing the La-Z-Boy with me.

My thoughts are with my kids who are going to the Sunday Night Football game, seeing the Ravens versus the Jets. It's going to be very cold and with rain in the air. Not my kind of day or night.

Listening to the TV commentators repeat what great football weather it is, my thoughts turn in another direction:

Morons.

Lately, the weather down here has been good for only one thing. Growing mushrooms.

Watching Herman Cain jump out of a van and gather mushrooms from my lawn is a clear message that there's been more than enough moisture and that economic times are truly trying.

Imagine if that image was really true. The very idea of paying for my own personal lawn grown mushrooms on a Godfather's Mushroom Pizza is abhorrent to me, but not as abhorrent as eating a Godfather's Pizza. It's that same concept, that of paying a monthly fee for the right to use a debit card to spend your own money, that's beginning to rub lots of people the wrong way.

I guess that Bank of America had that same Herman Cain image in mind. After all, what better strategy than to follow in the footsteps of a winner.

In reality, Herman Cain, instead of gathering other people's mushrooms and offering them off for re-sale, is gathering votes in straw polls in Florida and Kansas, having just won the Kansas Women's GOP Straw Poll, probably the most prestigious of all of the Women's straw polls in the former dust bowl.

Bank of America.should consider using Godfather's Pizza's consulting firm. That firm is so out in front, they already have a fallback ad campaign if Cain falters.

In that event, look for life-sized posters of their new spokesperson, Chris Christie, who is already hunkered down in the Godfather's test kitchen, but is coyly resisting the coaxing to come out.

As the sun is setting early in the eveningI know, from having lived a lifetime on the east coast, that when the cold rainy days in October arrive, it's time to hunker down for the winter and resist the need to go out and face the elements.

Sure, there may be an occasional nice warm day, and sure, despite knowing better, there's always the hope that winter will skip coming around this year, but that's never the way it works out.

I keep thinking that when our youngest son finishes college in a couple of years, Sugar Momma and I will move to California, her home state.

But the other day she asked me what I would do if we moved to California. Would I still spend the entire day parked in front of the computer and the "annoying" people on CNBC?

The problem is that I don't think that they're annoying, by and large. I think Judge Judy is annoying, yet she doesn't.

The reality though, is that I'm glad that I'm sitting indoors everyday. I don't venture very far from my La-Z-Boy, especially during market hours. I don't think that would change very much even after a move to a sunnier and warmer climate, although I might be more apt to head outside to shake off a particularly bad trading session. Maybe a quick glance at the ocean's soothing shores or the sight of a drive by shooting would help to settle some frayed nerves.

This past Friday, after a particularly brutal week, where my "God's Bounty" portfolio of Freeport McMoran, Mosaic and Rio Tinto was emasculated by some other deity, I needed that kind of light hearted romp. Even the Lord's precious metals got swamped, but in hedging my bets, I went with Zoroaster, playing the short side of silver.

Turns out, the movie "Contagion" isn't very funny. It also turns out that this monotheism may be a seriously cramping  belief system.

But early on Sunday, there was potentially good news, maybe even market moving news, hearing that Ali Baba is interested in buying Yahoo!

I don't know what positions Malta or Estonia will take on a proposed buyout, but we need some good news soon.

As opposed to the upcoming winter, I know that spring is coming. I also know that despite global warming things won't change that drastically during my lifetime to substantively change the natural order of things.

With that said, the natural order of things clearly included Yahoo! become a laughing stock and Ali Baba being in a position to buy it, hook, line and sinker.

But when it comes to the stock market, it appears that there is less and less concordance, correlation and connection.

News has become largely irrelevant, at least in terms of predicting market reaction.

The old adage, "Sell in May and go away" had been largely written off for years, just like "Dogs of the Dow" hasn't worked terribly well of late.

But as we closed out the third quarter this past Friday, it seems that the old selling adage may have finally been a winner.

Does that mean "buy and hold" is coming back, too? Maybe Communist hunting is next.

I do know that "buy low and sell high" hasn't been working out lately. Maybe that one will be back in vogue soon. Maybe even sooner than spring's predictable blossoms.

Looking at the early Asian markets trading, right now it's not looking very promising, as we get ready to start a new quarter.

Despite the paper losses of the past few weeks, for me its been a good options premium period. With three more weeks left to go for the October cycle, I'm already ahead of the September cycle.

That's a small comfort, since September was the second worst month of the year, but I'm hopeful for some good opportunities.

Like some of the old stock market adages, it's hard to know when to let go of the optimism. But by the same token, you can't completely dismiss the optimism. Otherwise you'd have to face the dark side and become an avowed short seller.

I'm not going there. At least not yet, the deperation hasn't hit that level.

This coming week our weather forecast is for a couple of nice, very warm days. Maybe a little bit of movement in Europe, a little bit of merger and acquisition news and a little bit of global warming can all help get rid of this gloomy and cold overhang.

In the meantime I'm going to watch the football game safely in the warmth of my home and look for my kids in the stands.

I know that it's highly unlikely that I'll spot them, but if you hope and wish for enough unlikely things, sooner or later one of them is going to happen.

I just hope it's the right one.

Sorry kids. You're on your own on this one. Hope you're bundled up.

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Making the Difficult Decisions

"That's why you get the big bucks" was always the statement made when someone was ready to pass the buck on decision making. Maybe funny the first or second time that phrase was ever used. it no longer seems to elicit even a forced chuckle.

Most people recognize that behind those words are the human sins of jealousy and wrath.

Cynics always say that behind every joke is the truth.

Whereas I used to believe that there were only two kinds of people, the ones with tattoos on their knuckles and those without, I now have a very different outlook on society.

We're essentially comprised of decision makers and those who would be quick to jump on the guy making the big bucks for a chance to make big bucks of their own.

For about 20 years I made decisions, but I never was faced with the aspect of someone waiting for a decision to go the wrong way for their own chance to become "the decider".

I was lucky in that way.

For the past 10 years I really haven't had to make much in the way of workplace decisions and I've come to like that kind of slothenly existence, even though that also qualifies as a human sin.

Actually, I haven't even had to be in any kind of workplace other than my own La-Z-Boy for most of the past couple of years, thanks to Sugar Momma and her faith that I could be more than just a love machine.

Today was a bit different, as I was uncharacteristically faced with a number of looming important decisions.

It all started with the realization that I'd be cut off from information today, yet again. For the second time this week I was going to be working, but at least I wouldn't have to make any workplace decisions.

What I had to decide was whether to bring my own laptop and modem to work today to complement the PC available to me. I thought that perhaps I would just stream CNBC and in someway recreate my at-home trading lair. I felt so lost on Monday without those literal and figurative tools of the trade.I just had to have more than one screen and just had to have the background noise, occasional gem of a segment and the screen crawl.

For a moment, I even thought about bringing the La-Z-Boy with me.

I stood over one of the laptops this morning, faced with the realization that in order to stream CNBC I would have to use the premium E*Trade platform, rather than the middle of the range one that I much preferred.

MarketTrader, the platform that I like has all of the views pre-arranged. Not much in the way of customizing necessary or possible. By contrast, the premium platform is fully customizable and can have as many pages as you like with their uniquely positioned and chosen tools and fields. Charts galore, research tools, pretty colors. You name it. Even the whistles have whistles.

It's just E*Trade's way of saying that frequent traders need and are more likely to appreciate a more advanced approach to trading. I suppose that's true,  but to do so requires lots of decisions.

So, easy decision.

I wanted no part of having to accustom myself to a different interface, even if it meant that I would miss out on what was going on in the world.

But that's why I get the big bucks, because I can make those kind of difficult decisions without agonizing myself into inaction.

With that problem solved it was time to lay out the day's trading strategy. My illness requires that I make trades even if there is no rational reason for doing so.

I was fully expecting some kind of retracement today. If this was a dead cat bouncing it didn't know the meaning of gravity. I actually had an image of Wile E. Coyote running past the edge of a cliff and somehow staying airborne until he realized there was nothing below him to stop the plummet.

But that's not what happened. It was just more of that unbridled enthusiasm that Greenspan had warned us about and that we hadn't seen for a while.

With the end of the trading week, I decided to follow yesterday's theme of exalting the lowly penny.

Today, the bet being made was that the prices for British Petroleum, General Electric and QQQ would retreat from their current levels by the close of trading today.

For some reason I decided that would be a good idea, even in the face of advancing prices. After all, at some point, Wile E. has to drop.

Coupled with the fact that the premiums for barely a days worth of time were really low, it seemed that the correct decision would have been to just keep riding the horse that's pulled us this high over the past few days.

Maybe making the difficult decision means making the wrong decision in the face of over-whelming facts, so obviously I was the perfect person to be making those decisions to sell call options on those shares.

My only connection to reality today was the Twitter feed that I was getting, but for some bizarre reason I seemed to be getting alot of re-tweets about horses today.

Horses?

So Twitter wasn't of that much help today.

I also noted two recurring rumors. One about Steve Jobs being hospitalized and the other about Tim Geithner stepping down as Treasury Secretary.

Since neither Apple nor the broad markets seemed to react to either of those rumors I decided to ignore them, even thought they kept coming fast and furious. At least the previous day's rumor of Steve Ballmer stepping down from Microsfot had come to an end.

Then I went to StockTwits. Amazingly, then couldn't find anyone similar to me to suggest that I follow.

Twitter always has plenty of suggestions, most of which fall into the lunatic range and so I don't take their advice, but at least that counts as another decision on my part. 

In all, despite the 152 point Dow gain, I was underwhelmed, maybe because my earlier decision to sell call options for Freeport McMoran left me wishing that I hadn't. I started questioning the decision to bearishly sell those call options and bemoaned the great likelihood that I wouldn't be enjoying the full benefit of their substantial price rise these past few days.

Until it hit me.

 I came to the understanding that I was living the best of all worlds. Not only was I getting paid today to go through the motions of working, but I was also helping those pennies pile up in the background by making these non-sensical and uninformed trades.

But best of all came the ultimate realization.

What better position is there to be in than to not only be the decision maker but to also be the one passing the buck and then questioning the wisdom of the decision.

Now comfortably perched back in my La-Z-Boy I can appreciate that no one is going to pounce on me for having made a bad decision, if that's the way it turns out by the time of today's closing bell.

There'll be plenty more bad decisions to come, but I've decided I can take that kind of responsibility.

And that's my final decision.