Weekend Update

If I do say so myself, the nice thing about my blog is that you really don't have to read it very often, because I'm constantly repeating myself. Imagine being married to me. Suddenly the unlimited supply of amusing stories and anecdotes reaches a limit, as long as your memory or hearing is intact

Best of all, this still being a free society, you don't have to read it at all, as long as you continue to pay the monthly subscription fee to have it delivered to your Kindle.

Imagine, just $0.99 a month to have it electronically delivered to your e-Book reader.

I think Amazon should adopt the old Telephone directory strategy for having an unlisted number and charge $2.50 a month to not get the blog delivered to your Kindle.

But if you have been reading on a regular basis you'd know that I've been bemoaning the fact that so far in 2012, I've been trailing the S&P 500.

Ever since I've been doing this dogmatic approach to covered call writing I'm not accustomed to seeing myself behind the eight ball.

The real kiss of death probably came when Barrons Magazine called the covered call strategy the only winning one for 2011.

It's exactly the same as when TIME magazine puts something hot on the cover.

It fades and fizzles.

Or like when Sugar Momma finally got herself an iPod Mini.

The day that she gives up her Kindle and exchanges it for an iPad is the day I start shorting Apple shares with every last bit of my soul and portfolio.

But finally, this week was back to normal, though not in trading activity. I still made relatively few trades this week. Having made such few trades, some dumb ones, in hindsight, really stand out.

Like grabbing a few pennies by selling calls on all of my Research in Motion holdings on Thursday, the day before shares inexplicably go up 7%.

I say inexplicably, because the purported reason was first given that there was some sort of Samsung alliance rumor, which was then followed by the contention that the fact that RIMM didn't offer a "profit warning" report had to be a very positive sign.

I don't know very much about SEC rules, and by that I mean that I don't know anything, but are they required to give profit warnings?

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At a Loss

It's around 2 PM on Thursday, but for me the trading week has pretty much come to an end and I stand defeated.

Actually, I lounge defeated. It's really the same thing, just more comfortable and can be sustained for longer periods of time.

As I look back at the week I'm at a loss to explain or to rationalize my continued state of existence. If I don't trade, what am I?

The alternative is frightening and brings back memories of the classic TV character, Maynard G. Krebs," when faced with the possibility of having to do something gainful to support his "footprint."

"Work!"

Bob Denver's character's response to the very possibility of having to work was pretty unrealistic as there was really no evidence that he had ever worked before. Of course I know that sounds like someone's mother using the "how do you know that you don't like liver if you've never tried it," but who knows, Maynard may have liked working.

I like lounging.

Tomorrow will be one of those infrequent days that I will be doing something reasonably constructive and venture more than a few feet from my La-Z-Boy perch. As with most of these days, they were planned a couple of months ago and do contribute to that flickering portion of my ego that still requires self-esteem.

Oh, and they pay well, too.

It's just coincidental that it comes at a week when I've done essentially nothing to advance the argument that I deserve to be perched. Imagine that if your prized talking parakeet stopped talking. I'd probably feed that sucker to our dachshund, Laszlo, who would be so totally self-actualized if only he could get a bird between his jaws.

If I can't do my tricks, what reason is there to keep me going and supplied with a freshly lined cage?I had been hoping to keep doing this even beyond the point that they'll have to start lining my La-Z-Boy.

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Law of Large Numbers

It seems that as everyone is all a buzz about Apple, the nay-sayers are beginning to pop up.

Again.

Most recently, the nay-sayers were prepared to pocket their profits after Apple disappointed those expecting an announcement of a dividend or stock split.

The funny thing is that the "buy on the rumor and sell on the news" kind of thing never happened.

It's sort of maddening when the script isn't followed and the Talking Heads are left out to dry and quickly disavow their admission of shorting shares. Although to be fair, there were plenty of Apple bulls to be found, as well.

Ordinarily, any company climbing as much, and as rapidly as Apple has in recent months, would have sold off on the realization of good news and would most definitely have plummeted on the news not having been realized.

Instead, there was no reason for Steve Jobs to roll over. The kids he left to take care of the place didn't trash it at the very first opportunity. It's almost as if they actually cared about their legacy.

No dividend, no split, no Flash.

Among his other positve attributes, you probably have to add "respect for the sacred" to Tim Cook's list.

But the re-appearance of the nay-sayers is only natural.

They popped up briefly when the iPhone 5 failed to appear, but still, it's easy to understand why being a nay-sayer is so appealing.

No one remembers the guy who climbed aboard the moving train, but everyone remembers the guy that decided to take the train when it was  subsequently learned that the plane he was supposed to take ended up crashing.

That guy was a genius.

With excitement growing about some kind of iPad product release, shares have moved up to another all-time high. It seems that latter part of the preceding sentence could have been said any number of times since I lost my Apple shares to assignment at $425 not that long ago.

Now, every cynic is citing "The Law of Large Numbers" as a reason to be wary of investing in Apple.

As anyone knows, investors pay for future growth. Also, as anyone knows, according to Woody Allen, an investment is like a shark, in that it has to "constantly move forward, or it dies."

I try not to burden myself with knowledge or accepted wisdom and I don't mind distorting quotes or taking them way out of context.

I do like to wait for the next train though, rather than trying to catch a speeding one that's already left the track.

For me, Apple has left the track, but I also think that the shark will soon stop moving, but certainly not to the point of death. It will still be menacing to others by virtue of its size and reputation and occasional demonstrations of past glory.

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Rip Van Winkle

At some point, even Rip Van Winkle wasn't going to return from that final sleep.

But here I am, 9 months later and not a single blog post.

Not quite the 20 years that Van Winkle allegedly slumbered away, but based on my life expectancy, still, a pretty big portion.

Actually, I dreamt that I wrote a book.

My publicist tells me that while I was gone, people now Tweet and Poke..

And so, he strongly suggests that if I want to push sales of the OTP Book, I need to Tweet and Poke.

So I started slowly. Figuring that I could get into less trouble by Tweeting, until he explained to me what those actually meant.

So now I am @TheAcsMan and I'm being told to get a moniker for all of the friends that I really would rather shun, but now must Poke and be poked.

I spent the day in Hershey, Pennsylvania yesterday. It reminded me a little of the time that Ned Flanders and his kids moved to the town that made the Hummel figurines. It was as idyllic as he had imagined it would be and somehow, it became maddening in its perfection.

Hershey looks idyllic. I wonder?

I spent about 4 hours driving yesterday, but not before making my 2010 SEP-IRA contribution, just in time for taxes.

 Now, with this new piece of change sitting in  the account, readers of the OTP newsletter, or those smart enough to have already purchased the book, and yes, there are some of those, can probably guess what I did.

RIverbed Technology was an old favorite of mine, but I haven't owned it since about $28.

So now I own it.

In fact, I did something that I don't usually do, but the money was really burning a hole in my pocket.

I spent the entire amount on RVBD and I bought all of the shares in one chunk.

That in itself wasn't bad, but as I started my drive, with SmartPhone using the E*Trade app and my netbook logged in to E*Trade, I just  just watched RVBD tumble about $2.

I know, you're thinking how "uncool" I am, because I don't have an iPad.

Listen, there are lots of reasons that I'm not cool. Just add that to the list.

OK. I know that there are other readers that are aghast at the safety concerns of being so plugged in while driving.

Eh, what's life insurance for then?

But it got worse. I had left the house without being able to get my sell order for the $33 April call option executed. Again, a broke a cardinal rule, in that I got hung up over a penny or two between bid and ask.

As I was heading home by 3 PM, things hadn't gotten better, with the Dow still down over 100 points and RVBD leading the retreat.

So it came as a little surprise that in the after-market, what should I see, but RVBD move up about $5 from its close on an unexpected announcement  a week ahead of earnings.

With the excitement of being able to get a second chance at selling the call options, but now at $35.

With 2 days left until options expirations, I hope my shares get assigned. Then I promise I’ll follow my own rules.

I did take the opportunity to buy back my $80 Mosaic contracts. With a cost basis of about $76.40, I netted about $1.20 on the call contracts. I'm hoping for an upward move tomorrow, as Mosaic came back from down $1 to even, late in the session and then selling $77.50 call options.

That's what the milking is all about.

Speaking of which, if I was still writing the original Option to Profit Newsletter, I would be putting out a buy signal on Goldman Sachs at $160.15, with the sale of an April 160 call option at a premium of $1.38.

Although I don't currently own any Google, it announces earnings tomorrow. Older readers may remember some of my Google rants. I personally am very reluctant to pick up shares right before earnings announcement. Fortunately, I don't have any spare cash right now. But if I did, I would purchase Google at $576 (give or take) and sell a $580 call option at an $11.60 premium.

Google usually acts explosively when they announce earnings, always on the first Thursday or earnings season.

If you look at the historic price action on the few days before earnings are announced, they seem to be in the direction opposite of where Google goes after the announcement.

Most recently, despite a small price climb today, Google's action has been decidedly negative.

I think it will go up nicely after hours on Thursday. If I'm right, an shares get called, you would have a $1500 profit for 2 days.

Or not.

If I am wrong, Google typically goes down between $30 and $40 and then recovers about 50% or more of the retracement in a week or so. At that point, you would strongly consider selling May Google calls.
I've never owned more than 100 shares of Google at a time, but it is a great stock on which to repeatedly sell and then buy back option contracts

If you were a subscriber, you know that I would usually give 4 or 5 short term trades on the Wednesday before expiration, but without the explanations.

I'm too tired to do that, but you know what to look for.

Wake me up in about 19 years. Maybe a gentle poke would be sufficient.