Forgive and Forget?

A lot is said about the power of grace and the human ability to forgive.

For those that believe that there is a forgiving deity that looks over the lives of all believers it's hard to say whether the power to forgive is viewed as divine or also within the province of mere mortals.

Sometimes it's much easier to believe in a vengeful God, because it seems in that instance, we would truly be made in "His" image. In the case of a forgiving God, human nature makes it hard to measure up to that standard.

I will always remember the words of John McCain during one of those periods in his public life that he was actually credible, in reference to Osama Bin Laden.

"May God forgive his soul, because I certainly won't."

After all, who are we to forgive?

Whether it is the private confession of sins or congregational prayers for forgiveness we are all flawed and we have all introduced sorrow and harm into the lives of others. Whether through passive or active positions, we could all benefit from forgiveness.

To a large degree, being able to forgive is self-serving. The animus or grudges held over being wronged can keep the aggrieved from moving forward and making decisions and taking actions to benefit themselves. Breaking the chains that shackle may begin with the single act of forgiveness. How else do you get on with the rest of your life?

What better way to thumb your nose at your tormentor than to move forward and prosper?

But what about the latter half of the old saying "Forgive and Forget"?

Why Am I asking so many questions?

So many in response to horrible acts have adopted the mantra "Never Forget," in response to man's inhumanity and the pains suffered.

To forget is to repeat. You don't have to be Santayana to realize the logic of that concept, although if you also buy into the concept that history repeats itself, you're doomed regardless.

I've never met an historian that doesn't remember history, other than Newt Gingrich.

Click to read more ...

Oracle as an Oracle

I've never done well investing in the technology sector, with a couple of notable exceptions

Let me list my failures: Intel, Dell, Hewlett Packard and Yahoo. There may be some others, but there are times when I buy stocks in companies without even knowing what it is that they actually do.

Probably not a good idea.

Nearly 30 years later, I still recall a close call in the technology sector.

I received an allocation in the IPO for  hot company called Eagle Computer. It was perceived as a real competitor to the IBM PC back in the very early days when a PC cost about $5,000 or more, if you wanted a second floppy drive for storage.

Funny story.

Its charismatic CEO was killed in a car crash on the day of the IPO.

Only an oracle could have foreseen that.

The underwriters actually refunded money to IPO investors and ran their next IPO a few months later without me. Eventually, the proprietary Eagle Computer, bereft of its guiding light, morphed into an IBM clone and then was sued out of existence by IBM along with some other early players.

In hindsight, maybe that's not such a funny story.

I was spooked by the reliance on a single individual and continue to be so.

Technology seems to be highly linked to charismatic individuals.

Okay, sometimes, like Bill Gates, they're not really charismatic, but in his own way, he was. Who else could turn mosquito netting into a sexy way of saving lives?

Ballmer?

Click to read more ...

Pull the Plug

I've already made my wishes pretty clear.

After seeing the latest George Clooney movie, "The Descendants", I definitely don't want the plug to stay in the wall whenever that time comes along, as it most certainly will.

Nor do I want my loved ones tearing me a new one as I helplessly lay comatose in an overpriced hospital room if (when) by chance they discover some dark secret about me that will occur sometime in the distant future.

Or while I was 500 miles away from home today.

It seemed funny in the movie, but I think that would mar the legacy that I'm actively trying to fabricate.

So, in the event that the documents I've previously completed in response to the certainty of the former occuring  are misplaced, let today's blog serve as a legal document as to my intentions.

Pull the plug. Let me go.

Click to read more ...

7 Reasons why Criminal Life is Great

Following Wednesday's Moodys downgrades of Wells Fargo and Bank of America, fresh off the heels of a downgrade of Italian debt on Monday, it was not going to be a good day. The only hope was that maybe our Bernanke led Federal Reserve would pull an incredible rabbit out of its hat and just turn things around.

But for the most part, everyone was just waiting for the anticipated "Operation Twist" and its details before commiting one way or another.

Once those details came from the FOMC, which was uncharacteristically following Obama time for release of its statement, the market didn't like the description of our current economic state. Maybe it just couldn't deal with the fact that there were three dissenting votes

In a couple of blinks we went from being up 14 points to down 283.

Just another day at the office, dear. Just a little bit of dissent in the ranks.

Surprisingly, I don't feel like talking about stocks today, as I took another, largely unhedged pummeling, getting only two call sales made, both on beaten down RIverbed Technolgy, which was probably riding Hewlett Packard's coat-tails up this afternoon, as Leo Apotheker, its CEO of almost 12 months was rumored to bedismembered by coyotes.

Instead, I need to come clean and this is a good time as any.

It's not easy saying this, but at some point the truth needs to come out.

No, I'm not a virgin. A game of Twister, years ago, took care of that. And if I was, I don't think that I would admit it.

But as I sit and really think about it, the criminal life is great. The problem is that I'm not a criminal, but there's still time to re-invent myself. In a society where so many occupations are disappearing, there will always be criminality. Some things can't be entirely shipped offshore, even if the Nigerian princes are more authentic 10,000 miles away.

So then there's the whole credibility issue.

I suppose that everyone is a criminal by some definition. Depends on your society and your own personal values and especially how those values may be at odds with others, especially those with power. The guy who "pied" Rupert Murdoch during the Parliamentary hearings is a criminal, although most people watching the proceedings were probably equally criminal, at least in intent.

Years ago, when Jimmy Carter was running for the Presidency, during a Playboy interview he admitted to having "lusted in his heart". Nothing really criminal about that, but had he said that 20 years earlier he would have been condemned as a godless pariah and cast to the bottom of the heap with the other low lives.

Even Mother Teresa had her detractors, so much so that some theologians, perhaps of dubious merit themselves, believe that she is consigned to eternal imprisonment in Hell.

As I've grown accustomed to sitting on my La-Z-Boy, watching TV and trying to trade stocks and options, I've started to wonder whether I'd squandered the first 30 years of my professional life by toeing the line. Working day and and out, not only paying bills on time, but actually paying and other things that now seem so arbitrary.

Growing up in The Bronx, I now realize that the old neighborhood was populated by Mob families. The fathers were always home, were always around to play stickball with their kids and even had their own little coffee shop with blackened windows. The shirts weren't called "wife-beaters" back then, but I suppose they were.

Plus, the streets were always plowed and they had the best fireworks.

Can anyone say "Winning"?

My Sugar Momma and I have religiously watched COPS for about the last 20 years. Even though neither of us know more than the first line of the theme song, some things have become fairly obvious, besides the fact that some people can garner respect in a wife-beater, while others just can't and never will.

But what we really learned is that there's good criminal life and there's bad criminal life. COPS always portrays the bad criminal life.

Stupid people drinking, fighting, stealing and lying. That's bad criminal life. They seem to live in pretty squalid kinds of surroundings, have home-made tattoos and wear their pants down to their knees. They're often very unattractive as well.

Smart people probably stick to just the stealing and lying part although you do catch glimpses of the smart kind that think that they're smarter than those charged with keeping society safe, if you're in the habit of  watching Dateline.

Those often commit the bad kind of crime sometimes while in pursuit of the spoils of the good kind of crime.

That's a bad admixture. You can't do good by doing bad.

But I now realize that there are lots of good reasons to lead a certain kind of criminal life.

1. You make people feel better about themselves

People are so often much too hard on themselves and often suffer from inferiority complexes. Some have the whole thing figured out and just hang out with even more pathetic people to look good by comparison.

Being subjected to the bad kind of criminal activity let's those with a sense of inferiority know that there is someone even less deserving than they for our world's limited resources. Unfortunately, that kind of activity is often associated with very unpleasant things.

Like violence.

But being subjected to the good kind of criminal activity spurs aspirations, the need and desire to improve their own lots in life by seeing that there is another way to break the chains. There's nothing like a good example to spur people on to bigger and better things.

Seeing a hacker profiled on 60 Minutes makes most people believe in themselves.

If that moron could do it, so can I. And I won't get caught, either.

Not only do you feel better about yourself, but you inject your entire defeatist personna with an air of much needed confidence.

Beyond that, if asked to "forgive" a criminal who has wronged them, what greater feeling can anyone have than the magnanimity to provide grace to those that have fallen?

2. There's no time clock

The only thing you need to keep an eye on is your bank balance. That becomes your internal clock. Don't feel like playing criminal with your buddies today? No problem, take the day off. Want to sleep in this morning? Guess what? No problem.

Raining outside? Hetl, I'm not getting my new Crocs wet if I don't have to.

Shower? I don't need no stinking shower.

Get the idea.

3. Society loves a successful white collar criminal

It's true. They really do, unless they were directly effected. Most people admire the fact that people that can enrich themselves without really breaking a sweat.

The "Why didn't I think of that" mentality is common to our species. Best of all, seeing just how easily it can be done leads others toward developing even better techniques to separate people from their assets.

That is the basis for how we advance aqs a society. Unfortunately, the Chinese seem to be outdoing us at the moment, especially when it comes to the integrity of the companies that they take public.

But then consider who you admire more? The person that inherited their wealth, the person that made others toil to an awful extreme and under terrible conditions on behalf of their bottom line, or one that just siphons off other people's money?

Would you rather be America's next successful white collar crime czar or a tele-marketer? Seriously, which one really belongs in jail?

Wouldn't you rather see Bernie Madoff putting his skills to good use outside of jail and perhaps just cram 20 telemarketers into his cell instead?

4. You feel better about yourself

Not only can you check off "Other" or "Consultant" on those forms that ask about your job industry, but you can also choose any professional degree you like, any annual income and any net worth figure when completing surveys or polls.

Want to feel better than you did yesterday? Forget the Zoloft. No problem, just fill out a new form, maybe get yourself a nice new glitzy business card.

Watching your neighbor leave early in the morning for work and then getting home 12 hours later just reinforces that good feeling. That and the ability to hack into his unprotected wireless network while he's gone.

5. Stronger Family Relationships

Study after study shows that the more time parents can spend with their children during formative years, the better the outcome.

Kids that are able to routinely eat dinner with their parents have been consistently shown to be less likely to abuse drugs or alcohol.

The kids that I grew up with, whose fathers were always at home? No doubt they went into the family business and are passing the lessons learned to their loved ones over a nice plate of pasta and mussels.

6. Expanded personal horizons

There's nothing like a taste of success to move you toward seeking even more success. This is not your typical same old, same old 9 to 5. In the good kind of criminal life there's incentive to do well and to reach for even greater rewards. As you do so and as your enterprises thrive, along with your professional credibility comes social responsibility.

Patron of the arts, supporter of worthwhile charitable causes and other activities that support society, particularly as government support dwindles, are all part of the successful navigation of a career in good crime.

During the process you also learn things that you never learned in school, including evolving talents to meet the needs of the moment. In no profession does necessity translate into invention quite as efficiently as in a life of crime.

7. Improved strategic planning

If you look at the data on retirement planning, it's clear that we as Americans have no clue how to plan for the future.

Choose a life of crime and strategic planning becomes your middle name. Escape routes, alibis, Plan B, and so many more considerations before executing a plan. In essence, everything you do is lived out as if a three dimensional spreadsheet.

Those unprepared to deal with strategic planning are doomed to failure and may as well just work for a living.

These 7 reasons alone are compelling enough to get most people to start on their road toward change.

I haven't even mentioned the popular trickle down theory and how all of society benefits from your creation of personal wealth. Money and the time to enjoy spending it benefits all of us. Restaurants, department stores, pasta and mussels delivery boy. Everyone gets their piece.

Beyond the obvious reasons to consider re-inventing yourself are purely financial incentives that are more than just icing on the cake.

Anyone that's had a workplace 401k knows just how bad those are and how limited the investment choices can be. Together with contribution limitations, there's no denying that the self-employment tax deferred plans are so much more favorable.

Of course the ability to itemize your business related tax deductions are only limited by your imagination.

Need well manicured nails to stay at the top of your safecracker game? Simply take you deduction on the clippers and file. Panty hose over your head? Deductible.

Where do I sign up?

Since this blog is required reading in many elementary school classrooms, I want to be certain that it's clear that I'm not exhorting anyone to a life of "bad crime", but serious thought should be given to being the best you can be at the "good" kind of crime.

It's never too early to begin plotting your life of future plotting. 

Now if only there was a way to have all of these benefits without the laibility of prison.

How great would that be?

Wishful thinking.

By the way, what's your PIN, again?.

How Much Bad News can we Handle?

Today started off with terrible news, so it should have come as now surprise that the markets would react negatively, drastically and with unbridled violence.

The news that the beloved screen actor and martial arts expert, Jackie Chan, had died of a heart attack swept numerous social media sites, spreading across the globe, saddening fans and traders alike.

On the heels of Thursday's U.S. market close, Friday should witness a bloodbath in the Asian markets once those markets open, as Chan was held to near diety status. Very fortuitously, the Arab markets are closed on Fridays, in respect of their Sabbath day. Chan is so revered there, in recognition of his early role in a little known Saudi backed film where he decapitated a young Moses, thereby causing the Exodus to never occur.

He is, in fact, held to such high regard within that demographic, that his image is not allowed to be shown in his movies.

Today's report came several months after the most recent unsubstantiated rumor of Chan's death, but the market, in its wisdom is never backward looking and ignored the news that the silver screen star was very much alive.

It's not about accuracy. It's about the moment. Revisions are routine and routinely ignored.

You could tell that there was obvious tension in the air as CNBC security was called in to separate Jim Cramer and Simon Hobbs from one another. It appeared as if Hobbs was trying to establish mutual consent on the adoption of Queensbury Rules, but the kid from Philadelphia was having none of that.

Although calmer heads eventually prevailed, it wasn't so for the markets. They needed to vent.

Following the early sell-off came more bad news from Europe. Finland, a economic powerhouse of a country best known for having been usurped by the Soviet Union, joining Hungary as one of only two members of a dead language family and the home of the ubiquitous Nokia telephone, threw a wrench into the Greek bailout.

I would have also mentioned walrus blubber, but the previous sentence was already well past run-on status.

Just as they were getting ready to cross their T's and dot their umlauts, Finland decided that they wanted collateral on the loans to Greece. On the surface, that wasn't a problem. but then the FInnish Finance Minister was concerned that the Feta Greece was putting up had a expiration date that was unacceptable to the olfactory enhanced and sensitive Finns.

So our markets reacted accordingly as there was fear that the stink would spread across the European continent.

Oh yeah, and then there was that abysmal report from the Philadelphia Fed. The report showed contraction of factory activity to its lowest level since 2009. Anyone who has waited in line for a Philly Cheesesteak can attest to how long it now takes to shred the Cheese Whiz

But wait, isn't that when we hit our last stock market bottom?

How great of a sign is that? Good enough to take the Dow from down 200 to down 500.

That good.

For those that remember The Haines Bottom, RIck Santelli reportedly called the bottom today. Somehow I missed that, but I did hear him call for $2200 gold, albeit, he warned of a precipitous correction. That would be bad news to come, but probably good news for others.

Today, all of the talk was about "risk-off" and the shift of money into gold. Given gold's meteoric rise these past few hundred dollars, I still have a hard time seeing how that qualifies as a "risk-off" investment. I still can't get James Altucher's remark out of my mind. "It's only a rock. It's a rock".

Real value resided in tulip bulbs. We all know that.

Those may be the most sane words I've ever heard uttered. The former. Not the latter.

Later in the day, with about an hour to go until the closing bell, trading was halted in Hewlett Packard.

More bad news.

HP had been another rumor source all day, as word leaked out that it was looking to spin off its PC business and then acquire an Enterprise company named "Autonomy"

Seriously, Autonomy is going to be acquired. Anything incongruous about that?

Well, HP pre-announced its earnings and the stock nose-dived. The fact that they pre-announced should not have come as a surprise to anyone, as HP has a habit of doing that regardless of the CEO du Jour.

What struck me as funny was a comment by Michael Dell.

Yes, that Michael Dell, who suggested that the name of the new HP PC spin-off might be "Compaq".

Yeah, pretty funny, but Michael Dell is probably not in much of a position to fling stones. In fact, during the first iteration of Szelhamos Rules, he was the subject of "You Can Never Go Back Home". Read it, especially in light of the warning in the very last line of that blog article.

Of course, if you owned Dell shares yesterday, you weren't very happy, as Dell just reinvents their own personal bear market. Although after 16 quarters of earnings' disappointments since Dell's return, they must surely be approaching  Michael Dell's objectives.

Truth be told, cutting off the "Dude, you're getting a Dell" guy was like cutting Samson's hair.

As I watch more erosion of my portfolio at least I was able to come up with a new strategy to make my funds last me through retirement.

Out of necessity comes invention. So I've decided to stop taking my hypertension medication. Not only does it soilve the primary problem, but it's also a very cost-effective way to solve it.

The last bit of bad news still has me puzzled.

For some reason, much ado was made today about the President taking vacation. In fact Yesterday Donald Trump said that he "was told" that President Obama has now taken more vacation than any other President.

How convenient that he could spread that "news" but not take the blame, when its proven to be false. My guess is that he was probably the one who started the Jackie Chan rumor as a way of taking heat off of himself for publicly announcing his beautifully timed purchases of Citibank and Bank America.

Forget that President Obama has taken one third of the vacation time that his predecessor did during the same time period.

It was no accident that Will Ferrel, in a Saturday Night Live spoof, had George W. Bush referring to himself as "your President, 24/7. That's 24 weeks a year. 7 hours a day." Where's there's smoke, there's fire.

But, you would think that the President's opponents would greet his vacation as good news.

After all, if he is to be blamed for the economy and the rapid degradation of Feta cheese, it should be of great benefit to have him take his hands off that steering wheel.

As a fitting end to the trading day and as a unintentional salute to the new norm,  Maria Bartiromo said "The Dow Jones Index is off by over 500 points. Its worst loss in a week".

In a week. Not 2 years, or whatever the previous standard was for time between disasters. Now 5 days seems like an eternity.

Using that new norm, my retirement funds should last at least another 2 weeks.

Now, finally, some good news.

From Ashes Arose the Phoenix

What's in the Szelhamos Portfolio?

My least favorite subjects in high school were English and what used to be called Social Studies. Given that I attended a high school that was internationally known for its emphasis on science and math, I'm not even certain why the non-science classes were taught. There's really not that much in life that can be achieved with the written word.

Fast forward a generation and both of my kids are fascinated with history and have relatively little use for math and science. Fortunately though. they still have some use for me. The youngest one was able to make his first real phone call from basic training yesterday and it was a special Father's Day treat.

My oldest son came over for a Father's Day visit and did the barbecueing, which is something that I really dislike doing. It was great.

We also independently paid our visits to Selhamos. Father's Day and Mother's Day are sad days to visit cemetaries, especially when you see so many young kids there.

And there were.

Death is also not one of my favorite topics, even though I do love the obituary pages. I do, however, like the concept of resurrection, just not necessarily in a religious context, despite the fact that I spent 4 years in a Jesuit college.

If I could choose a resurrection for anyone that's died in the past 24 hours, no doubt that I would choose Clarence Clemons. I last saw him and the E Street Band 2 years ago. I still wear a T-Shirt from that concert tour at least once a week.

Even though "The Big Man" had to be lifted onto stage back then, man could he wail.

But resurrection was not the sort of thing they taught at my public high school anyway, which back in those days was predominantly Jewish. What they did sometimes teach, however, really taxed the imagination and my patience for learning.

Within my least favorite classes was a subset of least favorite topics.

That was Greek mythology. That stuff was about as believable as the concept of the Greeks readily accepting the fact that their economy may no longer support the right to retire by age 35. But when you think about it, the EU could just as easily been in a position to bail out the Phoenicians, but for some simple twists of fate.

Hated it. Just couldn't identify with any of the characters or gods, although that Oedipus fellow....Interesting.

So no one is more surprised that I am for the title of today's blog, ripped right from the mythological headlines.

What's somewhat fascinating is that I also once owned a Pontiac Phoenix.

It was one of the then new GM series X-Cars that was supposed to revolutionize the American automobile industry. Even then, I don't think I knew what exactly about that series of car was so spectacular, but Consumer Reports gave it glowing reviews in its inaugural year, only to do a complete about face by the next year.

My Pontiac Phoenix caught fire while I was driving it on I-95 in Rhode Island at about 4:30 AM enroute from Boston to New York. I recall driving on a pretty deserted and dark road when I saw someone flashing their brights in my rearview mirror.

That car then pulled alongside me and started honking wildly.

When I didn't respond as that driver thought I should, he turned his courtesy lights on so that I could see him and frantically made sweeping hand and arm gestures which I really can't recreate on paper.

Since I wasn't expecting to be playing Charades and was never very good at mime interpretation, I just kept on driving, ignoring the lunatic to my side as best I could.

As it turned out, the under-carriage of my car was on fire. At some point a combination of flames from the hood and smoke, on an otherwise smokless and flameless early morning, finally drove the point home.

Although I never did finish that drive home.

I'll spare you the details, because I'll probably end up using them for another blog, but in the days before cell phones, it took quite a while for help to arrive.

Ashes. Phoenix. There was no resurrection

And so we begin another new options cycle this morning in the aftermath of another miserable week and another miserable month. The June cycle may as well have all gone up in flames.

Oh wait. It did.

Sure, I know that the S&P 500 actually finished the week with a 0.1% gain, but most people still think of last week as having been the seventh losing week in a row.

I know that I do.

As much as I'd like to see Clarence Clemons resurrected for at least one more show, I've got no such hopes for June 2011.

The only thing that helped to make it less of a total loss of a month were some of those last minute options sales that were made in some pathetic combination of desperation and addiction. Those pulled in nearly as much as the previous three weeks.

Interestingly, it actually made me realize that there was an opportunity to return to the past. Back in the days when I ran a monthly service offering 4 or 5 trades in the 2 days before monthy options expiration. But I gave that up. Once a month was entirely too infrequent. But all of a sudden its become clear that the weekly options offered the opportunity to actually make those recommendations much more frequently.

So with that ever worsening ADHD I suppose that's the next venture. Re-establishing that newsletter and the market for it. Yet another pile of ashes, albeit self-imposed, ready for resurrection.

But first, it's July. Making something of the ashes left behind after 7 weeks of losses. Although those losses were mitigated a bit by the options sales, as I noted a few weeks ago, I was under-hedged, since I kept thinking that the market would reverse course.

It probably will come as a surprise to no one that was not the case.

Of those last minute call options that I sold in Mosaic, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, Textron, DuPont and Dow, only the Microsoft and some of the H&P shares were assigned. I had been expecting and hoping for more and had planned on possibly picking up shares in Visa, Sallie Mae, Riverbed Technogy and Home Depot.

I actually bought Home Depot last Monday, just to pick up Tuesday's dividend and then sold a call option. That was a good series of trades and I still think Home Depot may be a good holding, even at a slightly higher price. So I will likely pick up replacements for my assigned shares.

Beyond using the phrase "From ashes rose the Phoenix" I really didn't do much research to see what the mythological context was or what lessons can be learned from the ancient tale. It just seemed like an apt thought.

That point was actually driven home as the new Szelhamos Rules blog just reached its 20.000th hit this Saturday.

I say "new" because the original version ran for precisely one year. After the first year, regular readers were redirected to a new site called "Csokoljmegasegem.com

You'll have to use Google Translate to figure out what that means. It was one of Szelhamos's favorite Hungarian expressions.

But from those ashes arose the new Szelhamos Rules, and as a Father's Day gift, my son has said that he will oversee an entire re-design of the site.

Told you. A great Father's Day.

I hope that you all had the same.

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions