Winsome Wednesdays

I spent a good part of the day in a medical facilty and its waiting room today. and I'm not quite certain how to describe the fare that was playing on the communal, but grossly undersized overhead television.

Obviously I'm spoiled by both content and context.

It certainly wasn't what I was used to watching during the day, as local news production values leave much to be desired.

Unless I'm mistaken or still in some drug induced recovery mode, I think that one of the correspondents adorned in a plaid blazer was named Herb Grunberg and he was accompanied by Brian Mulligan and Candy Drury.

Other than perhaps being a bit more hirsute and much less intelligible, I guess I could learn to like them, if I was destined to spend the rest of my life in a Bizarro universe.

But my stay here was to be a short one. Sugar Momma made me promise, though, not to divulge why I was here, but I am at liberty to disclose that my efforts to perfect an Erectile Dysfunction drug that allowed you to wait 8 hours before seeking urgent medical attention went awry.

Seems that the calculation should take into account the amount of time that it takes to get to the facility.

But despite the utter boredom of the day, it was a welcome change from what is typically "Winsome Wednesday" which for me represents the low point of the week in terms of trading activity and meaningfully relevant news stories.

Lest you think that I don't know the meaning of the word "winsome," let its use just be refelctive of the fact that I was too lazy and unimaginative today to come up with some other word for alliterative purposes.

Yet, when looking for a change of pace, maybe boring Wednesdays are my definition of "winsome."

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I Need a Case of the Blews

After the first week of trading in 2012, I was pretty ecstatic.

I don't really recall the details anymore, but I was way ahead of the S&P for those first few trading days, but had I just matched the overall market's performance I would have been happy, as the year was getting off to a good start.for everyone other than the Godless short sellers.

As the prayerful believers intone during the Passover Seder, "Daienu" - it would have been sufficient, as God is thanked for each successive miracle that he bought to a fleeing people in the desert. One such miracle would have been enough, but two? Three?

There's nothing like a series of miracles to chase a bad case of the blues.

For what it was worth, I was also hearing the fruits of my laborious efforts on air at CNBC as the crew of "Street Signs" was continually referring to their new word of the year, "Eurosis," which coincidentally enough I had submitted in response to their request for viewer submissions.

It was going to be a very good year. Miraculously so? Probably not, but as Szelhamos would say "Good enough."

Money and ego. How can you go wrong with that combination? The former feeds the latter and then if you can independently build the latter as well, all is good, as long as the ego doesn't give you a false sense of invincibility.

Then along came Ben Bernanke.

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What a Week

I love extrapolations and projections, so based on this past week, I'm getting ready for a great 2012.

Even though this was a holiday shortened trading week, I definitely got my fill of thrills.

I'm not exactly certain how I should categorize the kidney stone that helped to welcome in the New Year. I guess that not all thrills are positive ones, but at the very least it didn't cause me to miss anything other than some pain free stretches of time. It also seemed odd sitting in my usual perch on the La-Z-Boy without being able to extend the leg rests.

At that point, it's just a chair, so what's the point of a La-Z-Boy?

The unexpected probing was also an unwanted thrill, but this time the prober did not at all look like Woody Allen and had no sense of humor about him.

Slam, bam, than you man and that was it. No dinner, no drinks and certainly no conversation.

What I found somewhat unusual was not paying in cash to have my asets handled so unemotionally.

Sort of like the relationship with your stockbroker.

I suppose that the kidney stone is something that I'd prefer not to extrapolate. The thought of giving birth to a 7 pound bundle of crystal by years' end isn't as appealing as it may sound.

But how could you not love a week when inserted between every verbal comma was mention of the Hungarian currency, the Forint? With all of the discussion of how trivial the Greek economy is in the big picture, imagine where Hungary sits.

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Not Feeling It

Maybe its the fact that we just came off a 300 point climb.

Maybe it's because its been nothing but rainy and dreary all day long, but despite what was looking like nearly a 100 point run up on Tuesday, I just wasn't feeling it and couldn't really get in the game today.

Maybe it was because Silver wasn't exhibiting its recent paroxysmal and alternating direction behavior.

More than likely, though, my lack of enthusiasm today was probably strongly related to the fact that my portfolio under-performed the market all through the day.

That was thanks to Amazon, Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, which, wouldn't you know it, led the portfolios to out-perform the markets on Monday.

You can have Yin or you can have Yang, but not both, unless their conjoined twins, in which case they might be more appropriately referred to as "Siamese."

Whatever the root cause, I was antsy.

Not only was I not feeling it, but it may have been contagious.

The news that the parent of American Airlines was going into bankruptcy wasn't terribly interesting, either. The only thought that occured to me was that at its closing stock price, it would take about 25 shares of AMR to purchase an in-flight alcoholic beverage.

Even in boredom I amuse myself, but no such luck with AMR shareholders. I suppose they just weren't feeling it.

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Excesses

We're Americans.

We love excess and excesses and are probably harboring lots of pent up need to exercise excess, just waiting for an economic turnaround to finally get here.

In the meantime as those parts of the world that were once derisively referred to as "third world" are discovering the joy of excess, we still know how to party with the big boys.

I'm not certain whether I meant that literally or figuratively.

On Wednesday and Thursday my oldest son and I were in New York City, a place I rarely went to during all of the years spent growing up in the Bronx.

Of course, back then, the only places in "the city" to visit were things like museums and art galleries and they always seemed to take their child unfriendly causes to excess. Even the dinosaurs were a bit much, as if bigger was actually better when it came to extinct species.

Some of the great homes along Fifth Avenue, past residences to the Astors, the Morgans and others weren't appreciated by me back then, either.

Not even the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, a display of inflated cartoon characters taken to excess was enough to attract me to see them on anything other than a TV set.

They didn't have things like Bloomberg News and CNBC back in the old days. Not just to watch on TV, but to physically step foot into.

Those are great attractions. I'd see them any day. And that's exactly what we did while visiting the past couple of days.

Sure, Wall Street was always there, but I never knew about Wall Street when growing up.

The funny thing is that I still have no desire to actually visit the epitome of capitalism. No desire to have the obligatory bull and bear picture taken. I did, however, want to have a picture taken with some Occupy Wall Street protestors, especially since they are, among other things, protesting the great excesses of Wall Street and banking.

Maybe next year,

Ah, but a picture of a real New York corned beef sandwich. Now we're talking pictures.

On the way back home we stopped for New York deli food. Not to be overly chauvanistic, but you really can't get that kind of corned beef or pastrami anywhere else. The nice thing about the New York delis is that they don't offer corned beef sandwiches with a choice of cheeses or breads.

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And a Child Shall Bleed Them

I had a flashback this morning.

It had been nearly 50 years since I's been on the Palisades Parkway in New Jersey, the road that hugs the Jersey side of the Hudson River.

Obviously, we didn't get to that side very often and with the exception of an enduring admiration for Bruce Springsteen and his endless stories about his home state, I've never had reason to return.

I've made it a point to avoid all New Jersey public restrooms along the way as I've made the journey from Washington, DC to New York

The last time that I can recall being on that road was part of a family outing that took us to the old Palisades Amusement Park. Like Freedomland, an amusement park in the Bronx, Palisades Amusement Park has long met the wrecker's ball and real esate speculator's grasp.

Unlike Freedom Land, at least Palisades Park has found immortal fame by being the title of a rock song from the late 50's by the Coasters.

For all I know, it may have been the Platters and it may have been in the 60's, but you don't pay good money to read this blog for certified details

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Anti-Climactic Much?

The past week was all about superlatives. Best of all, the superlatives were all headed in the right direction.

It really didn't matter that so much of that direction was dictated by rumor after rumor. People who were smart enough to do the stupid thing and not take profits when common sense dictated otherwise were well rewarded on paper.

With the close of trading on Friday we were hearing all kinds of statistics centering around the market's performance this October.

By all accounts we had seen the single best performing month since 1618, or in meteorological terms "ever since records have been kept"

It was that good. You actually had to go back to when Native Americans were occupying Wall Street to have had as good a month as we'd just experienced.

Even the old adage "buy on the rumor and sell on the news" couldn't bring the market down after the rumor of breaking an impasse over the Greek financial crisis came into being.

At least to a degree, as today the Greek Prime Minister announced that the final details of the debt agreement will be put to a referendum. So, that certainly makes it a done deal.

What could possibly go wrong?

But in October jut about everything went right, as long as your standard is that you need at least a 17% gain.

Shorts were reportedly being squeezed, talk of IPO's was beginning to burn up the airwaves and people were clicking on the ads on this site.

That final indicator seems to be a very accurate one. People click on financial related ads when they're feeling good about multiplying the wealth. When the market is going down no one in their right mind clicks on an "Open an E*trade Account" ad.

Even Groupon was looking rehabilitated and in some corners was being compared to LinkedIn, with regard to the reception its IPO would be expected to receive.

 

By some measure, those all may be sufficient to mark a near term market top. And so, today, perhaps befitting the fact that it's Halloween, the market just gave a middle finger to those superlatives and proceeded to lose almost 2.3%.

The diagnoses for the drastic response today came quickly.

“Risk aversion is once again taking hold in markets,” said Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. strategists in a market commentary following this anti-climatic end of the month day.

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Never a Good Sign

I used to really dislike three day weekends.

Since my only hobby is watching the CNBC ticker, I feel a real void on days when the markets are closed. As if Saturdays and Sundays aren't bad enough, the third day makes it truly insufferable.

I certainly don't dispute the need to have national holidays nor do I dispute the specific events or concepts that we honor, but so much is lacking on those days.

For example, even inveterate viewers can stand to watch "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" only so many times as CNBC seeks to fill the air on the holiday schedule. Admittedly, though, I could watch the "Marijuana USA" special on an endless loop, as long as someone lets in the medicinal delivery guy when he knocks.

A few weeks ago, as Hurricane Irene was threatening to blow the roof off of the northeast, CNBC broadcast live on Sunday, a day normally reserved for broadcasting its public service imformercials. I'm not certain why I have MediaBistro.com bookmarked in my browser, but they showed a photo of the CNBC air mattresses after their deployment, to show just how seriously they were taking their commitment to breaking news.

Had Hurricane Irene posed a threat only to Florida or North Carolina viewers would still be able to learn about the many purchase opportunities available for their kitchen rotisserie. However, since Irene was headed for the northeast, the only part of our nation deserving of weekend coverage, that gratification had to be delayed.

Any other part of the nation and MediaBistro.com would have posted photos of CNBC hammocks.

Well, here I was, Labor Day and me without a job, by choice. What to do? What to do? Mind you, back when I was working, Labor Day and all 3 day weekends were a welcome event.

Today was Sugar Momma's turn to take her visiting brother to the movies and they've left to see "The Smurfs Movie" prior to his departure for home tomorrow.

Me she sent to see "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" with him the other day. In the recent past, he and I had seen such delights as "Yogi Bear", "Alvin and the Chipmuks" and "Marmaduke". I don't know why I listened to her this time, as I didn't follow her advice last year to take him to see "Inception". This time  I wanted to see the Smurfs, but will bide my time for appropriate revenge. That threat is probably empty as I still haven't devised my revenge for the time she made me place a "to go" telephone order, that took about 20 minutes to complete, at a new Japanese restaurant where the staff didn't speak anything resembling English.

That was 26 years ago. There'll be hell to pay.

So that left me home alone with Laszlo the Dog and I was scratching my head and his back over a topic for today's blog.

The most difficult blog of the week is always the first, as boredom and slow news days don't lend themselves well to an interesting topic. The biggest story, the absence of Jerry Lewis from the traditional Labor Day Muscular Dystrophy Association Telethon wasn't a real story, since the news was released months ago. Besides, despite the lack of transparency over the surprising decision, everyone, including Jerry Lewis, seemed to be focused on the main event rather than the behind the scenes drama.

Even the Twitter stream was slowing, but then again, I only follow 29 people and they seemed to be taking the day off bidding an official goodbye to yet another summer.

But there she was, Jane Wells.

Second time this week she provided topic inspiration and guidance. You can always count on her, even though if she ever ascends to elective office in the "Draft Jane Wells for President" movement,  she may ban corked bottles of wine.

I'd like to see her struggle with an screw top bottle of Australian wine and see how long it takes to realize that "righty loosey, lefty tighty". Besides, is America really ready for a "Wine Party" candidate?

This time she tweeted that CNBC was live with European market coverage.

That can't be good.

I tried to tune into CNBC, but the Hammacher-Schlemmer Artificial Intelligence Remote Control seemed to know that was a likely error and instead suggested that I watch CNN on this market holiday.

So I had to try and figure out what the various buttons on the TV and cable box actually did and eventually found the proper sequence of clicks to summon up CNBC.

Do you see why I don't like these 3 day weekends?

As it turned out the market equivalent of a hurricane hit Europe, with the FTSE 100 faring best, down only 3% for the day. You don't want to know how the DAX did, but let's say it dropped the equivalent of the savings afforded by one of those tax free shopping days.

The only thing in this financial natural disaster missing was video of George W. Bush patting the back of the Bank of Greece CEO and saying "Heckuva good job, Brownieopoulis".

As it turned out, the Enron documentary was being pre-empted by a group of people with decidedly British accents, yet unaccompanied by sub-titles. There was a banger filled rotisserie grill in the background and I imagine air mattresses, as well, although there's a very good chance that the British do not celebrate our Labor Day.

Sorry, Labour.

Luckily, numbers,charts and graphs are reasonably universal, as are the colors red and green.

Oh, I'm sorry again. Colours.

Conventional wisdom had it that following the terrible open in US trading on Friday, the market would recover much of that loss by the second or third hour of trading.

No one was more surprised than me that the conventional wisdom turned out to not be correct.

But I do have to admit that I fully expected, in the absence of any earth or market shattering news, our Tuesday trading to be positive.

Now, it's not looking quite as good.

In hindsight, it's unfortunate that the sell-off on Friday, taking a number of my holdings that were hedged by weekly options, ended up with them being slightly out of the money. As much as I enjoy being able to repurchase those shares on the next trading aday at a price lower than was assigned, that won't likely be happening on Tuesday.

Only some of my Freeport McMoRan shares will be assigned, and there's never any telling where those will trade, as they don't particularly follow the market trend with any regularity.

At this point, it's barely noon on Monday, the European markets are closed and the US futures are pointing down over 200 points.

Live CNBC coverage has now ceased, there's still about 20 hours before our markets open and it promises to be a slow remainder of the day.

Who knows, between now and then some unforeseen good news may pop-up, like maybe capturing and killing bin Laden again.

Short of that it's hard to see any good news offsetting those bad signs.

At least I got my CNBC fix today and have an idea of what to expect tomorrow.

As it stands, we don't have anymore 3 day weekends for a while, but there will be another Sunday coming up next week.

From now on, I'll be using CNBC as my guide for breaking weekend and holiday news. If there's no Magic Bullet slicing and dicing its way through the weekend, take cover, it's just not a very good sign.

Invest like TheAcsMan

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  hoco blogs

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. Use 10% Discount Code P4S2ZD8H

  

Never a Good Sign

I used to really dislike three day weekends.

Since my only hobby is watching the CNBC ticker, I feel a real void on days when the markets are closed. As if Saturdays and Sundays aren't bad enough, the third day makes it truly insufferable.

I certainly don't dispute the need to have national holidays nor do I dispute the specific events or concepts that we honor, but so much is lacking on those days.

For example, even inveterate viewers can stand to watch "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" only so many times as CNBC seeks to fill the air on the holiday schedule. Admittedly, though, I could watch the "Marijuana USA" special on an endless loop, as long as someone lets in the medicinal delivery guy when he knocks.

A few weeks ago, as Hurricane Irene was threatening to blow the roof off of the northeast, CNBC broadcast live on Sunday, a day normally reserved for broadcasting its public service imformercials. I'm not certain why I have MediaBistro.com bookmarked in my browser, but they showed a photo of the CNBC air mattresses after their deployment, to show just how seriously they were taking their commitment to breaking news.

Had Hurricane Irene posed a threat only to Florida or North Carolina viewers would still be able to learn about the many purchase opportunities available for their kitchen rotisserie. However, since Irene was headed for the northeast, the only part of our nation deserving of weekend coverage, that gratification had to be delayed.

Any other part of the nation and MediaBistro.com would have posted photos of CNBC hammocks.

Well, here I was, Labor Day and me without a job, by choice. What to do? What to do? Mind you, back when I was working, Labor Day and all 3 day weekends were a welcome event.

Today was Sugar Momma's turn to take her visiting brother to the movies and they've left to see "The Smurfs Movie" prior to his departure for home tomorrow.

Me she sent to see "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" with him the other day. In the recent past, he and I had seen such delights as "Yogi Bear", "Alvin and the Chipmuks" and "Marmaduke". I don't know why I listened to her this time, as I didn't follow her advice last year to take him to see "Inception". This time  I wanted to see the Smurfs, but will bide my time for appropriate revenge. That threat is probably empty as I still haven't devised my revenge for the time she made me place a "to go" telephone order, that took about 20 minutes to complete, at a new Japanese restaurant where the staff didn't speak anything resembling English.

That was 26 years ago. There'll be hell to pay.

So that left me home alone with Laszlo the Dog and I was scratching my head and his back over a topic for today's blog.

The most difficult blog of the week is always the first, as boredom and slow news days don't lend themselves well to an interesting topic. The biggest story, the absence of Jerry Lewis from the traditional Labor Day Muscular Dystrophy Association Telethon wasn't a real story, since the news was released months ago. Besides, despite the lack of transparency over the surprising decision, everyone, including Jerry Lewis, seemed to be focused on the main event rather than the behind the scenes drama.

Even the Twitter stream was slowing, but then again, I only follow 29 people and they seemed to be taking the day off bidding an official goodbye to yet another summer.

But there she was, Jane Wells.

Second time this week she provided topic inspiration and guidance. You can always count on her, even though if she ever ascends to elective office in the "Draft Jane Wells for President" movement,  she may ban corked bottles of wine.

I'd like to see her struggle with an screw top bottle of Australian wine and see how long it takes to realize that "righty loosey, lefty tighty". Besides, is America really ready for a "Wine Party" candidate?

This time she tweeted that CNBC was live with European market coverage.

That can't be good.

I tried to tune into CNBC, but the Hammacher-Schlemmer Artificial Intelligence Remote Control seemed to know that was a likely error and instead suggested that I watch CNN on this market holiday.

So I had to try and figure out what the various buttons on the TV and cable box actually did and eventually found the proper sequence of clicks to summon up CNBC.

Do you see why I don't like these 3 day weekends?

As it turned out the market equivalent of a hurricane hit Europe, with the FTSE 100 faring best, down only 3% for the day. You don't want to know how the DAX did, but let's say it dropped the equivalent of the savings afforded by one of those tax free shopping days.

The only thing in this financial natural disaster missing was video of George W. Bush patting the back of the Bank of Greece CEO and saying "Heckuva good job, Brownieopoulis".

As it turned out, the Enron documentary was being pre-empted by a group of people with decidedly British accents, yet unaccompanied by sub-titles. There was a banger filled rotisserie grill in the background and I imagine air mattresses, as well, although there's a very good chance that the British do not celebrate our Labor Day.

Sorry, Labour.

Luckily, numbers,charts and graphs are reasonably universal, as are the colors red and green.

Oh, I'm sorry again. Colours.

Conventional wisdom had it that following the terrible open in US trading on Friday, the market would recover much of that loss by the second or third hour of trading.

No one was more surprised than me that the conventional wisdom turned out to not be correct.

But I do have to admit that I fully expected, in the absence of any earth or market shattering news, our Tuesday trading to be positive.

Now, it's not looking quite as good.

In hindsight, it's unfortunate that the sell-off on Friday, taking a number of my holdings that were hedged by weekly options, ended up with them being slightly out of the money. As much as I enjoy being able to repurchase those shares on the next trading aday at a price lower than was assigned, that won't likely be happening on Tuesday.

Only some of my Freeport McMoRan shares will be assigned, and there's never any telling where those will trade, as they don't particularly follow the market trend with any regularity.

At this point, it's barely noon on Monday, the European markets are closed and the US futures are pointing down over 200 points.

Live CNBC coverage has now ceased, there's still about 20 hours before our markets open and it promises to be a slow remainder of the day.

Who knows, between now and then some unforeseen good news may pop-up, like maybe capturing and killing bin Laden again.

Short of that it's hard to see any good news offsetting those bad signs.

At least I got my CNBC fix today and have an idea of what to expect tomorrow.

As it stands, we don't have anymore 3 day weekends for a while, but there will be another Sunday coming up next week.

From now on, I'll be using CNBC as my guide for breaking weekend and holiday news. If there's no Magic Bullet slicing and dicing its way through the weekend, take cover, it's just not a very good sign.

Invest like TheAcsMan

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  hoco blogs

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. Use 10% Discount Code P4S2ZD8H

  

The Tide is Turning

What's in the Szelhamos Portfolio?

Based on a one day move it's probably a bad idea to suggest that a pattern or trend is developing.

That should be painfully obviouse for anyone that's been following the markets and the daily intra-day moves the past couple of weeks.

Giddiness quickly dissolves into disbelief, and not the good kind of disbelief.

As usual, there was lots of discussion over the possible root causes for Thursday's typical 400 point move.

There are those who believe that the European decision to limit short selling on the financials was the impetus. My memory is increasingly fuzzy these days, but didn't we try that as well? Don't think that it had quite the longterm impact that the decision architects had hoped.

Others pointed to the early return of French ministers from their month long August vacations to attack the French banking issues that are now emerging. The first photos from those finance meetings are a stark reminder that no one should wear European style bathing suits, even if there's a conference table to obscure the details. 

For my money, I'd rather suspect that someone might have a similar background to mine by looking north of their waistline.

Today, however, I think I spotted the ultimate market indicator that very strongly suggests that the market is heading up with sustained gusto.

During a brief period of time, that seemed all too long, Herb Greenberg disappeared from the CNBC picture. He was always one of my favorites. A calm, analytical approach to macro and more importantly for the individual investor, micro-economic analyses.

Just as an aside, but a follow-up to yesterday's basic math lesson, people like Greenberg are very valuable to the health of your portfolio.

I've never been a fan of mutual funds, but when I was gainfully employed and had to choose from among bad fund choices, I would always opt for funds that performed best during down markets. I certainly can't take credit for that strategy, but I just don't recall its source. For purposes of consistency, let's just say it was from Herb Greenberg.

And it is a good strategy, as it really is more difficult to overcome a single large loss than it is to make up for a multiple missed opportunities.

When Greenspan would talk about "frothy exuberance" and paint on a broad canvas, Greenberg would pragmatically focus down on the specific issues that mattered, your false hopes about inappropriately moving stocks. He consistently highlighted situations where the investor may have been at unexpected and highly significant risk.

Valuable stuff.

Well, thankfully for viewers, he's back and I hope, enjoying east coast weather. The fact that Sugar Momma and I plan to pack it up and return to her sunny California roots when the kids aren't looking is in no way meant to be interpreted as a statement regarding the hideous nature of weather in the Mid-Atlantic.

Ever since I re-started the Szelhamos Rules blog in an effort to boost sales of Option to Profit and started Tweeting, Greenberg, no surprise, has been another favorite among the small number that I follow. In fact, after my son, he was the first account that I followed and along with Paul Kedrosky they remain the only three that I have consistently followed.

My son doesn't necessarily help me with investment ideas, but at least I know what's going on with his life thanks to Twitter. And if FourSquare is to be believed, he sure does party a lot. I don't know whether Greenberg and Kedrosky have similar lifestyles.

But to be totally fair, however, I must give my son credit for early detection of VMWare and Iron Mountain, among others.

So here's the good news.

As any Twitter user knows, it's all about the Followers. Yesterday's blog, "Depends on your Perspective" re-affirmed the importance of size in every aspect of life.

For me, Twitter has become life, but based on my number of followers, my life expectancy is somewhat guarded or at least the value of my life is highly suspect, perhaps due to accounting irregularities.

In the 4 months that I've been on Twitter I've looked forward to the Tweets from Greenberg as they've complemented his now increasing on-air presence.

As usual, on Twitter he dispassionately and objectively reports and dissects "data" in his alloted 140 spaces.

Somehow, I once got included in a Tweet sent to Greenberg that included quite a bit of venom packed into its 140 spaces, but as they say, that's what it takes to make a market. I can only imagine how Jim Cramer's inbox must look as it's very easy to sling from behind a firewall of anonymity. (See "Why I No Longer Watch Jim Cramer")

Maybe it's the TV, maybe it's the wide range of fashionably colorful dress shirts, but Herb Greenberg's Twitter follower base has grown by about 60%, or an additional 4,000+ in short order.

That can mean only one thing.

As viewers and the Twitter universe are being ever more mindful and respectful of a circumspect and wary approach to stocks and the markets, the contrarian in me just knows that we are now poised for a major upward correction.

Forget all of those technical analyses and all of the charts and statistics. Face it, every math and physics PhD. out there has access to the same data and analytical tools and algorithms, yet they arrive at wildly distant conclusions. The fact that I've used a second derivative of the velocity of Greenberg's growth in Followers to create a market strategy is largely irrelevant.

Forget the "science" and go with the "Greenberg Follower Contra-indicator Tool".

As the number of his followers increases and becomes likewise increasingly engaged, it is a sure sign of investor capitulation. The water's both too cold and deep and besides, your mother told you to wait an hour after eating before you go back in for a dip.

In the meantime, Greenberg will continue to present sage-like and cautious observations.

I tend to be a cynic and even though I'm a short term pessimist, I am a long term optimist on most everything.

But as individual investors are getting more cautious, I think of the opportunities that are akin to short squeezes. It's related to something that's called "FOMO" or "Fear of missing out". FOMO itself is a first order derivative of greed.

Caution is absolutely the way to go. That's why I hedge everything, although I don't think I can use that strategy as an excuse to explain the girlfriend on the side. But when everyone is getting on the caution bandwagon instead of  judiciously exercising caution where appropriate, there is opportunity.

When the fear of missing out dawns on the individual investor prices go up. Demand trumps value.

So I, for one, am very happy to see Herb Greenberg's growing popularity. By the same token, I fully expect this indicator to break down at some point as those who have blindly followed caution would be fools to unfollow Greenberg once their FOMO takes hold. If anything, they'll need him even more to better protect what they've gained.

At that point I'll just come up with something else to replace the Color TV indicator and the Greenberg contra-indicator.

It's even easier than keeping everything contained in this bathing suit.

Addendum: Since this blog entry appeared in August 2011, Herb Greenberg has added on another 12,000 Twitter users, reaching 20,000 on December 1, 2011. Since then, the S&P 500 has gone up 6.8%. Unfortunately, 7.6% of that gain came this week (Nov 28 - Dec 1, 2011). Stay long, my friends.

Additionally, the following was not linked at the time the article originally appeared: "Fear of Missing Out"